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MDC risky - Sydney Cup is the valuepage  1 2 3 4 5 6 

Bruce Teague
Australia
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18 Oct 2019 00:47


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It’s worth noting that all the favoured contestants in the 720m Sydney Cup have had a pretty hefty preparation over recent weeks – mostly over the longs – with 7 day gaps between runs (6 days for some leading into the Cup heats).

If anything, they have displayed declining performances from week to week as measured in terms of race times over that period. Blue Moon Rising and WA runner Boom Down would be the exceptions to that rule, which is why they are 1st and 2nd favourites.

The discussion then turns around whether Blue Moon Rising can repeat its very smart 41.65 heat time. If it can, it will easily win because there is no indication that anything else can break 42.00.

But that hot run was itself exceptional – previously it could manage no better than 41.90 or 41.97. Given that it led for the last half of that race, it must have taken quite a bit out of its petrol tank so a predicted time of, say, at least 42.00 is more likely. Boom Down is quite capable of hitting that mark so it must be a pretty good chance of succeeding.

For the remainder, anything better than 42.15 would surprise. Still, interference and stamina may affect results.

On averages, $1.75 for Blue Moon Rising is poor value (as it was for TT in the heats). $4.00 for Boom Down is good odds. It could give you a bank to play with in the MDC half an hour later.

The MDC itself? Not sure, although Black Opium does have moderate beginners in the two boxes inside it. If I was forced to bet I would be hopeful of Get It Gizmo ($5.00) having a clear run to the first turn.




Steven Martin
Australia
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Dogs 174 / Races 66

18 Oct 2019 12:53


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Bruce Teague wrote:

But that hot run was itself exceptional – previously it could manage no better than 41.90 or 41.97. Given that it led for the last half of that race, it must have taken quite a bit out of its petrol tank so a predicted time of, say, at least 42.00 is more likely. Boom Down is quite capable of hitting that mark so it must be a pretty good chance of succeeding.


Spot on Brucey boy.


Michael Geraghty
Australia
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Posts 3907
Dogs 14 / Races 15

18 Oct 2019 13:11


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steven martin wrote:

Bruce Teague wrote:

But that hot run was itself exceptional – previously it could manage no better than 41.90 or 41.97. Given that it led for the last half of that race, it must have taken quite a bit out of its petrol tank so a predicted time of, say, at least 42.00 is more likely. Boom Down is quite capable of hitting that mark so it must be a pretty good chance of succeeding.


Spot on Brucey boy.

Sorry, totally disagree.
A dog that has to come from behind and give its all chasing down another, will burn far more fuel than a dog cruising in front, particularly in quick time.

No surprise to see BMR run just as fast, barring mishaps.


Tony Digiorgio
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18 Oct 2019 20:50


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Great summation Bruce.

You were right on the money.
In fact you couldn't get much closer !


Bruce Teague
Australia
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19 Oct 2019 00:36


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Thankyou Tony - I may re-apply for my tipster's licence.

On the LAW v come-from-behind discussion - 50 years of observation and analysis, endorsed by Dr John Kohnke (on "gutbusters"), confirm to me that LAW is a tiring exercise for the majority of dogs. The difference is that a backmarker is often running at less than 100% output in the middle of a field while the LAW dog has his paw flat to the floor for the whole trip.

It is also relevant to the first attempt case and to the second-up case, both of which are fraught with danger over the longs where 7 day breaks or less are very common.

Anyway, I think we have to say that the overall MDC effort was a great success. The statewide aspect was worthwhile and the free publicity was enormous - better than anything seen since the Miata/Black Caviar promotion in Melbourne.

Other comment is necessary.

* Great effort by the Hurst family with Good Odds Harada which exceeded its history (at Wenty and 29.30 at Bathurst and 29.00 at Gosford). It was going away on the post. It is a monument to the skills of the trainer.

* Shima Shine is a beauty and will get better.

* Thankfully, there were no falls in the big races but some went close. The main blame has to go to the notorious cutaway 1st turns at Wenty. Given its early position, favourite Black Opium was never going to win but others made sure of it as they blundered around the 1st turn.

* Why was Beteasy given the prime and only spot in Ch9 publicity? Did it pay for that or what? If so, how much? Either way, the complete omission of TABCORP prices was disgraceful, given that half the nation's customers were using it, and that its prices were better than Beteasy's in both big races.

* The absence of sub-titles on Ch9 was a penny-pinching effort, particularly to anyone like me who is hard of hearing (I use hearing aids but they are not perfect in mixed circumstances). Ch7 does not do that at the gallops (although, admittedly, it often does for AFL). As the population ages so their hearing declines.

* I have to say that allocating resources to Masters racing ($121k here) is a terrific step forward, not just for this occasion but around the state. No negatives and lots of pluses.

* Lots of flag waving about the great crowd attending. Perhaps, but I would like to see the figures. I can recall many nights at Wenty with bigger crowds - especially Egg nights.

* The National Anthem was disrespected by many (officials included) and by the singer who made up his own tunes. We need PA in charge.

* I still don't know where the $1m came from this year.




Michael Geraghty
Australia
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Posts 3907
Dogs 14 / Races 15

19 Oct 2019 01:38


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Bruce Teague wrote:

Thankyou Tony - I may re-apply for my tipster's licence.

On the LAW v come-from-behind discussion - 50 years of observation and analysis, endorsed by Dr John Kohnke (on "gutbusters"), confirm to me that LAW is a tiring exercise for the majority of dogs. The difference is that a backmarker is often running at less than 100% output in the middle of a field while the LAW dog has his paw flat to the floor for the whole trip.

It is also relevant to the first attempt case and to the second-up case, both of which are fraught with danger over the longs where 7 day breaks or less are very common.

Anyway, I think we have to say that the overall MDC effort was a great success. The statewide aspect was worthwhile and the free publicity was enormous - better than anything seen since the Miata/Black Caviar promotion in Melbourne.

Other comment is necessary.

* Great effort by the Hurst family with Good Odds Harada which exceeded its history (at Wenty and 29.30 at Bathurst and 29.00 at Gosford). It was going away on the post. It is a monument to the skills of the trainer.

* Shima Shine is a beauty and will get better.

* Thankfully, there were no falls in the big races but some went close. The main blame has to go to the notorious cutaway 1st turns at Wenty. Given its early position, favourite Black Opium was never going to win but others made sure of it as they blundered around the 1st turn.

* Why was Beteasy given the prime and only spot in Ch9 publicity? Did it pay for that or what? If so, how much? Either way, the complete omission of TABCORP prices was disgraceful, given that half the nation's customers were using it, and that its prices were better than Beteasy's in both big races.

* The absence of sub-titles on Ch9 was a penny-pinching effort, particularly to anyone like me who is hard of hearing (I use hearing aids but they are not perfect in mixed circumstances). Ch7 does not do that at the gallops (although, admittedly, it often does for AFL). As the population ages so their hearing declines.

* I have to say that allocating resources to Masters racing ($121k here) is a terrific step forward, not just for this occasion but around the state. No negatives and lots of pluses.

* Lots of flag waving about the great crowd attending. Perhaps, but I would like to see the figures. I can recall many nights at Wenty with bigger crowds - especially Egg nights.

* The National Anthem was disrespected by many (officials included) and by the singer who made up his own tunes. We need PA in charge.

* I still don't know where the $1m came from this year.

Bruce,
50 years of looking on the TV won't tell you anything about how that dog pulled up the next morning...50 years of hands on experience would give you a far more accurate assessment.

A dog can put in a "gutbuster" leading OR coming from behind, hence my mention of them running time, especially from behind. It takes a LOT of energy to run down a leader running TIME!
If a dog coming from behind has to be checked, go wide, and sustain prolonged acceleration it is certainly susceptible to a "gutbuster hangover."
I know because I've had them, as have most people who have had hands on experience.
A natural leader will expend more energy early than a natural "back marker" and then settle into a cruise speed.
Who gets to the post first depends on luck, keeness, ability and twitch fibres.
If its a deadheat, they probably both end up with "gutbuster hangovers".

No charge for that info.



Bruce Teague
Australia
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19 Oct 2019 03:02


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Michael,

I take it you do a full bloods etc after those runs?

Re "A natural leader will expend more energy early than a natural "back marker" and then settle into a cruise speed."

Exactly, I think that is more or less what I said. Put another way,
this sort of dog (eg Blue Moon or, previously, Poco Dorado) will use up petrol early while leading and then pull out whatever it has left to reach the post. While that is happening, nearly all dogs racing from 450m onwards will progressively slow down - as BRM did in the Cup - meaning it is pulling out whatever it has left to try to catch the bunny. BRM was paddling by the time they got to the post while Boom Down was still coming fairly hard - relatively.

Sometimes this can have long term implications, as evidenced when they used to run Marathons. 90% of those competitors never regained their pre-Marathon abilities after the race - telling us that their insides were stuffed. It has even happened in 700s. Boomeroo was a notable one in the Nationals in Albion Park - 4 days on a drip.

I agree it is not a black and white situation. It is one where the substantial majority of dogs cannot handle the challenge. Very few are built to handle 700m-plus, especially one after the other. The evidence is consistent and overwhelming.

What I am going to suggest is that the entire Finn litter is serviceable but not perfectly suited to 700m-plus. They get by but often take it in turns. IE they are average-fair but do Ok because the opposition is worse - as it was in the Sydney Cup. The other six dogs all ran much worse in the final than in their heats the previous week - and so did BRM. What do you put that down to? It is not unusual but quite normal.



Michael Geraghty
Australia
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Posts 3907
Dogs 14 / Races 15

19 Oct 2019 03:42


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The reason I disagreed with you, Bruce, was you were implying only leaders were susceptible to gutbusters...clearly not the case.
"Its not a black and white situation"... At last we agree on something.
Good to see you are seeing things a little clearer now.

I get blood done on a very regular bases...big believer in them.
Sometimes reasons can be found, sometimes not, which makes the picture even less black and white.

Challenges abound, even when hands on...



Terry Jordan
Australia
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Posts 4028
Dogs 0 / Races 0

19 Oct 2019 06:40


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Michael Geraghty wrote:

The reason I disagreed with you, Bruce, was you were implying only leaders were susceptible to gutbusters...clearly not the case.
"Its not a black and white situation"... At last we agree on something.
Good to see you are seeing things a little clearer now.

I get blood done on a very regular bases...big believer in them.
Sometimes reasons can be found, sometimes not, which makes the picture even less black and white.

Challenges abound, even when hands on...


Perhaps Micky G, you could ask the Master (Bruce) what is a NORMAL Blood count for a Greyhound? And a couple of days after a GUTBUSTER?
I'll wait in eager anticipation!


Simon Moore
Australia
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Dogs 32 / Races 393

19 Oct 2019 07:51


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if BMR doesn't get held up by the early 2 leaders it wins by a couple of lengths.
that's racing.

no need for a 10 paragraph summary, lol.



Doug Smart
Australia
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19 Oct 2019 08:30


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My opinion is I thought Blue Moon Rising eased near the line after the lure shot off costing him the race. The lure should not shot off before the winner crosses the line


Michael Geraghty
Australia
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Posts 3907
Dogs 14 / Races 15

19 Oct 2019 09:29


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Terry Jordan wrote:

Michael Geraghty wrote:

The reason I disagreed with you, Bruce, was you were implying only leaders were susceptible to gutbusters...clearly not the case.
"Its not a black and white situation"... At last we agree on something.
Good to see you are seeing things a little clearer now.

I get blood done on a very regular bases...big believer in them.
Sometimes reasons can be found, sometimes not, which makes the picture even less black and white.

Challenges abound, even when hands on...


Perhaps Micky G, you could ask the Master (Bruce) what is a NORMAL Blood count for a Greyhound? And a couple of days after a GUTBUSTER?
I'll wait in eager anticipation!

Now don't you go trying to cause trouble between me and me mate Bruce.
I reckon I was within an inch (maybe a mm) of getting him to realize the reality of the Greyhound.

If Bruce has a talent for interpreting blood profiles I'm all ears.
One can only guess why it was mentioned in the first place.

Great name for a dog...THE GUTBUSTER.


Mark Donohue
Australia
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Dogs 6 / Races 0

19 Oct 2019 09:42


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Not all that was written by the wizard was right and it was only a nose in it. Good Odds Harada was an Each Way Special. Congrats to connections.

The coverage on 9 Gem was average n they kept on talking up the crowd. It wasn’t a big crowd, but maybe it was better than the hundred or so on a normal night.

NSW 2
The Rest 0


Bruce Teague
Australia
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19 Oct 2019 23:41


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simon moore wrote:

if BMR doesn't get held up by the early 2 leaders it wins by a couple of lengths.
that's racing.

no need for a 10 paragraph summary, lol.

Simon,

My summary of the night involved several subjects, not just the Sydney Cup.

Your first point is interesting though. BRM got away moderately but seemed to suffer only minimal interference. Boom Down had a terrible start and had to avoid the whole field as it moved up - if anything it struck more harm than BRM.

As to how the race is run - here's my theory. Every dog has X number of ergs to put in per race. If it uses them up early it will have relatively fewer to use down the home straight. If it saves its energy early it will have more to use later on - witness racers with habits like Sweet It Is and Electra, although without a lot of MRI brain scans we will never know why. Dancers Reward was another freak as it never got warmed up until it had covered 400m-500m of a typical 900m Marathon trip. But there are very, very few of this type.

Then overlay two known qualities; normally, a greyhound goes like the clappers all the way as its chasing gene is dominant and it wants the bunny; secondly, some dogs are better in a field than others (Sweet It Is was poor) and/or experience has taught them how to handle the traffic. The former group is much more numerous than the latter group.

In this context, a greyhound differs from a human (who has the knowledge to better plan his race) or a thoroughbred (which is restrained by the jockey). In both those cases, experience and nous has convinced these competitors to bide their time - ie use up those ergs wisely. A dog can't do that, or not at full speed.

Now the LAW dog is out there flying but sooner or later it is going to run out of normal ergs - at which time it starts gobbling up reserves. That puts it into the danger area, doubly so if it has not had time to replenish those reserves after a previous run. So it starts to fade.

I once saw a noted slow beginner/barnstorming finisher do something unusual - it jumped in front and stayed there around the back so everyone said put down your glasses. Yet, half way down the home straight it stopped as if shot. It had run out of ergs. (This is also why you can't be sure that a strong 500m dog will get 600m and that run-home times will tell you much).

Of course, we are talking about averages. From that you have to personalise the racers by assessing each dog's individual position. That's all I tried to do in the Sydney Cup.

Sadly, no-one has yet answered my point that none bar the winner got anywhere near their heat times in the Cup final. Not even close.

So what will Good Odds Harada do at Goulbourn over 440m four days after a gruelling run to win the MDC? I have my doubts but I would not bet against such a powerful performer. Then again, maybe I should because it used up a great many ergs in the MDC and it has been run down before. I think I will watch, mainly because it will almost certainly be poor value.




Bruce Teague
Australia
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20 Oct 2019 00:12


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Just to clarify things - mention has been made of blood tests and twitches, neither of which I can talk about sensibly although I am aware of the general principles. I am a mere observer, not a trainer or vet or scientist.

I have mentioned the subject often in the past purely in a effort for the industry (ie its managers) to delve more into it so as to determine what effect racing has on the greyhound body. In particular, that might address racing frequency and distance capability.

For example, before and after blood checks could well explain why all but one of the eight dogs performed worse in the final than they did in the heats.

Having said that, I note the Vic stewards occasionally call for a blood test but I have no idea what they do with that information.


Michael Geraghty
Australia
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Posts 3907
Dogs 14 / Races 15

20 Oct 2019 03:58


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Bruce Teague wrote:

Just to clarify things - mention has been made of blood tests and twitches, neither of which I can talk about sensibly although I am aware of the general principles. I am a mere observer, not a trainer or vet or scientist.

I have mentioned the subject often in the past purely in a effort for the industry (ie its managers) to delve more into it so as to determine what effect racing has on the greyhound body. In particular, that might address racing frequency and distance capability.

For example, before and after blood checks could well explain why all but one of the eight dogs performed worse in the final than they did in the heats.

Having said that, I note the Vic stewards occasionally call for a blood test but I have no idea what they do with that information.

Geez, Bruce, it was YOU who mentioned blood tests first!
If you are going to start a subject matter then it helps your creditability to have sound knowledge of it!..."aware of general principles" doesn't cut it, brother!
Do some research so you know what you are talking about.
And here I was waiting for a detailed break down of blood analysis from you...

Btw, I think the subject of why SOME dogs don't back up has been completely rung dry by you for the past 18 mths or so, hence no-one bothers attempting to explain it to you...It's pointless.



Bruce Teague
Australia
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20 Oct 2019 05:45


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Michael,

I was the first to mention the words "blood tests" here but it was in a question as I often do in order to clarify a point. Specifically, I asked, "I take it you do a full bloods etc after those runs?" to help fathom what or if the "bloods" had varied before and after a dog's race. Apparently you do some of the above.

Secondly, to accuse me of talking for "18 months" about back-up hassles is incorrect. I have actually been doing it for well over a decade so please try to keep up. In turn, that followed analysis of the previous 10 years' experience studying stayers which performed at 7 day intervals.

The results of that analysis were always the same; about 67% of dogs could not do it, while the others could. In the Sydney Cup the other day, seven of eight runners could not do it, all by quite a way, while one could (Boom Down). The average shortfall was 6.5 lengths.

You are correct, however, that "no-one has bothered to explain it" to me. That leaves us with three points ...

1. The statistical analysis is incontrovertible. It is consistent and it's all in the record books (now embellished by the Sydney Cup stuff). That's the starting point.

2. It is "pointless" if you judge by the fact that no-one has ever done anything about it. That is hardly my fault but it should register with people who are supposed to be looking after welfare.

3. Yes, I mentioned "general principles" because anyone with an ounce of sense would know that variations in the blood count are indications of good health or otherwise - dog, horse or human. The detail of the what/how/why/when I must leave to others as I lack the qualifications - but I can ask questions.

Meantime, a common reaction to my pleas is that "the trainer knows best". Yet if we are to judge by the trainers' actions we can see they don't or, alternatively, they are prepared to take the risk.




Michael Geraghty
Australia
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Posts 3907
Dogs 14 / Races 15

20 Oct 2019 07:03


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What is pointless, Bruce, is trying to reason with an armchair remote control, generally aware person who is/was too lazy to get their hands dirty.
Pointless to the point of wasted time.

One last question...
Have the makers of Mortein developed a human pest control?



Ryan Vanderwert
Australia
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Posts 4237
Dogs 4 / Races 0

20 Oct 2019 07:27


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Michael from a trainers perspective cld you even consider what he's saying?



Kevin Wright
Australia
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20 Oct 2019 07:56


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Bruce
Blood tests very from dog to dog and with these new rules now in play many of the great products we could use for recover are no longer available to the trainer today so this makes it that much harder to pick a dog back up after hard runs ..

Sprinters and stayers are two different athletes. They have different body types, different muscle fibre types and, most important, different heart-lung function as they use different pathways or mechanisms in the body to produce energy to sustain performance.

Stayers are often leaner, lankier and longer in their frame than sprinters.

Some stayers can back up some cannot in a 7 day period

There are so many physiological changes that take place when you push a body to its limits, it would be impossible to make one measure and use it as a gold standard.”

Of course, there is one measure that ties everything together: performance. But it is not clear how to use that as a gauge of time to recovery.

How can you judge recovery except by measuring performance in another exercise bout similar to the one that initiated the fatigue.

Bloods go up and down depending on work loads and the time of the year ..

Dogs IMO take one day to recover for every 100 metres they run ...300 .3 days 450.500 5 days .and some dogs take longer than 7 days to recover when running over 700 meters plus

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