| Hi Hayden Your observations are pretty fair on all points although I do think the dam had a touch more ability than you are giving her credit for. that said from a few litters there was nothing to give you huge amounts of confidence to believe that she would produce a bitch that runs 29.17 at sale and has now produced the 2nd and 3rd fastest runs over the 500m distance at Sandown this year. (I think that is right - 29.22 and 29.24). This brings me to point 7. The point that Ryan made above is a good one. There are certainly a few nicks that seem to work better for BANJO BOY and, based on the track record so far, have the potential to upgrade bitches pups (over their own performances). So let's look a the examples raised above as they carry the similar nic through Blue Girl Vane. Easy Baby won 3 moderate races, the furthest being 311m at Cranbourne, yet this nic saw a litter that included 2 group one finalist (BIG FLOOD and BRUEGHELINO) and a group 3 finalist. Golden SHow Girl one 9 tab class races, of which the furthest was 425m at Bendigo in moderate time. Yet the litters looks to have a fair bit of ability although early days, and we are confident at least two will get a strong 600m maybe further. All bar one I think, the litter have won there maidens early (one ran second at first start) and there is reason to believe it will be a handy litter. Times are good. One has won two at meadows sub 30 and sandown and run fastest last sections f the day winning both starts at the meadows. But not suggesting any more than that at this point. Then there is Boo Icy You. You have done your research and out of nowhere comes Libby's Dream. Whilst that may seem a fluke I think the point is that there is a nic working here through Blue Girl Vane. As you know this game is about trying to identify the ways to increase the percentages of success in your favour - whatever your realities are and not everyone's realities are the same. So rather than saying a fluke, which it may well be, the reality is the ability has come from somewhere and maybe that nic, just maybe has something to do with it. Happy to share the other realities of increasing percentages. I note a topic about young sires and those that say, breeding to nics, breeding from fast bitches, proven group producers, rearing in more than a backyard or 10 x 10 yard, feeding well, giving handling during formation periods along with other things doesn't increase the chances of success are kidding themselves. If you want proof take two kids. Stick them in two different environments, one with training and physical activity the focus along with a great balanced diet and the other where these is a bit of physical activity and average diet. Tell me which kid is likely to be the better sportsman or more physically robust at the age of 16 years. No brainer. Why are dogs different? I also now have many examples of dogs reared, what I would regard badly, in small yards that have done nothing. Yet brothers and sisters from the same litter reared how I would regard well have won in in the city, 30 plus races and over $80,000 in prize money. And finally I am a realist there are several litters where I would say my and the breeders expectations of what they might get have been below expectations. But I don't think Banjo Boy is robinson crusoe on that one and he certainly hasn't had as many top line/elite producers as others, either in real numbers or in percentages of his total bitches served. Ie: I would rate less than 5% of the bitches he has served in the elite category as opposed to other sires being as high as 30 plus percent.
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Do you have questions about breeding theories? 
