I find it very difficult to believe everything you have written, after you enlighten me that your dogs went into large paddocks to chase, yet seldom saw and caught ..... something. It doesnt matter any way and I dont want you incriminating yourself either. All the best.

I do believe there has been many who have done it this way and regardless what we think i don't feel he is not being a Keyboard warrior and his contribution is welcomed as far as i am concerned ...

No need to poke the Bear as it only gets posts removed and the thread dies a slow death ...

Maybe when i travel over your way to the long white Cloud ..Micky Kiwi you can cook me a nice curried possum pie ....mmmmm . mmmm . I can taste that bone marrow now as i suck on those little morsels of possum gristle and bone ...and maybe i will buy myself a Possum hat with Wild Feral Cat Teeth

PS
relevance. Yes i agree ...

Bruse i feel is relevant MickY Kiwi .
Bruce is getting the hang of Social Media and for a simple Columnist I like Bruce for being educational and engaging his audience
For a Old Dude Bruce you handle Social Media with ease these days .....Cheers

Mikey G . you must have heard about the time our great Kiwi export Willy Mason was chosen to represent the Bulldogs in a charity Quiz.

The big prize of the night was $10,000 and after a blind draw the bulldogs were the team with a chance to win the $10,000.

Willy stepped up a bit nervous but realised even though he was a NZ'R the Aussie battlers in the audience would be right behind him.
The questions were a gimmee and all willy had to do was answer one question which was who is the prime minister of England. He smiled widely and to everyone's surprise answered Princess Di. The judges looked at each other in disbelief and shook their heads and started out "sorry Willy... but were drowned out by the fair minded Aussie audience who chanted giveemanothergo, giveemanother go. The judges laughed and agreed and after wondering what next, said well Willy could you tell us what 10 and 10 make. Willy was elated and howled out 20. the aussie crowd immediately started chanting giveemnanother go giveeemanother go.

Lol. I'll pay that one.
Never give up the passion, Michael and never give up the fight for a fair go...no more, no less.

35 years in the industry. I take my hat off to you. All the best.

Good point that Mark and it was the point my mentor made. He pointed out that animal behaviour is hugely affected by reward and pain or punishment and they learn better by reward. He pointed out that you cannot pull a chocolate bar or icecream out of your pocket and give it to them when they win so the reward you are left with is making a big fuss over them when they do win. How many times do you see the handler walking back after a race with their chest puffed up like they have just run the race themselves never giving the dog a second glance?

As for the hunting thing, the dogs love to go "hunting " in big open area's that have been frequented by rabbit's and the like, they get really keen although they hardly ever see one.
Two instances however that my head tells me I shouldn't post. Firstly I was emptying out some dogs in an acre paddock on daybreak one day when a demented rabbit decided it wanted to use the same paddock to cross to a neighbours. First I knew was while I was bending down with the shit shovel was a thunder of paws flying past and I looked up to see about 7 dogs hot on the trail of a rabbit, the fence was not far in front of the rabbit and the front dog was the best of our lot who eventually went on to equal the most consecutive wins by a greyhound in NZ. I could see what was going to happen and was helpless to stop it. The rabbit went through the 8 wire fence and the Dog hit the concrete post of the fence. His injuries were sever but as I stated he went on to win many races (58).
Many years later (3 weeks ago) I was in the same paddock with 5 dogs including the one from 10 years previous when I had my back to the dogs (brandishing the shit shovel again) and I heard a commotion looked up and the five of them had a rabbit that had not been in the paddock 5 minutes earlier. Realising how this was going to be hard to explain if a neighbour or visitor happened to look over I yelled at the dogs and ran over to try and retrieve what was left of the rabbit. They all backed off bar the veteran who had the first encounter many years before. I can take anything off any of our dogs so put my hand in his mouth and he let go but before he did he gave one final bite which just happened to be on my fingernail. Weeks later my nail is still black and looking likely to depart but the moral of the story is the dogs and I do not go harassing rabbits the bastards are harassing us.

In a bit over a decade the proportion of races of 480m or less has increased from 54.2% to 63.5%. Obviously, races of 500m-plus have dropped from 45.9% to 36.4%.

The most extreme changes have been at either end of the scale. Races below 410m have almost doubled from 15.1% to 29.2% while those of 650m or more fell from 5.1% to 2.8% of the total.

Even around the 500m mark, where all the big dough sits, the proportion fell from 33.7% to 27.7%.

This check involved around 1,000 samples at either end so the conclusions are fairly reliable - although figures might vary a little in a bigger study.

It is inescapable that the breed is not as strong as it was. Trainers have spoken.

With the main distances at Warragul (450m), Warrnambool (460m), Shepparton (450m), Geelong (460m), Bendigo (425m), Ballarat (450m), which are all "One Turn speed Tracks" I'd expected your results to show nothing more than a favoritism to a collection of races below the starting point of 480m (you've used) & less...But where IS a fair starting point (distance) when those tracks I've mentioned are all designed around those preferred distances above?

Back in the day, it was common knowledge that most dogs that could run out a strong 530m at Wpk, could not run out a solid 457m at Hpk due to the big sweeping corner (I'm sure your aware of this)....which most Victorian tracks I've mentioned (which I love may I add) are very much similar in shape.

For example,
THE RINGER won 21 CITY x 457m races (a record) at Hpk & zero at Wpk.
TURBO TOP won 25 CITY x 530m races (a record) at Wpk & zero at Hpk.

Horses for courses.

In summary, & well done Bruce for the time & effort in this study....& in your words -

Races around the 500m mark = 27.7%
Races of 480m or less = 63.5%
The most extreme changes races below 410m = 29.2%

So if I subtract
29.2% from 63.5% = 34.3% wins below the 500m mark but higher than 409m (the preferred race distances on those tracks mentioned).
So you could make an argument that this 34.3% of winners below the 500m mark but higher than 409m, could be added to the "Races around the 500m mark = 27.7%", which = 62% of races won are over the most preferred race distances.

62% I think is a very acceptable result. That's 2 out of every 3 win races between 410m & around 500m (your words).

To go one more step, your "most extreme changes races below 410m" should be adjusted to 411m to include all races over the Horsham 410m (which would slightly lower that 62% figure I've calculated).

And just one last one... to be fair, all races from "Healesville" should be excluded from the study due to the fact they don't have any distances further than 350m (which would increase that 62% figure I've calculated).

Sorry to confuse. I excluded Healesville from all figures simply because I do not keep a great deal of info on it and it had a lower profile in 2007. Had I put them in the comparisons would be even more odious, especially with the doubling of frequency recently. I don't deny its importance for a variety of reasons. Also, 350m at Healesville is much more demanding than most of the sub-411m races.
You could also say that 480m at Horsham is more demanding than any of the 500m/535m category but they often fail to warn the dogs about that. The long home straight is telling.

And the 410m figures do include Horsham 410m. I should have looked up the equal to or less sign.

Anyway, the basic message is clear - plus or minus a bit from time to time. It's the COLES effect - down down down.

On HP v WP - an awkward comparison. Yes, some could get found out in the last 20m at HP. But you would have to consider which dogs are competing in each case. In that era you often had dogs coming to HP from the Hunter which were deliberately bred to handle the big wide-open tracks. For example, most Maitland/Cessnock winners did not do nearly as well at the trickier Newcastle (Beaumont Park) track due to their galloping style. So too, HP v WP. Also I once ran a big survey of Maitland v WP starters. The Maitland dogs weighed 2kg heavier on average.

Another point is that many good performers at WP (and at the old Gosford track) were dainty bitches which could nick out well, rail well and hold on - eg Pom Pom Girl, Genesis etc. Conversely, wide runners were at a disadvantage, which mattered little at HP.

The thing is that if you change some ingredients in the recipe you get a different sort of cake. Closing HP had a catastrophic effect on NSW racing and the Hunter in particular because the big dogs lost their mecca. While it would have happened eventually, the closure was at the time (1987) purely for financial reasons on the part of GBOTA. They won, the industry lost.

That was never relevant in Victoria but it was in Queensland when Parklands closed and NSW GRA emasculated Border Park. SA has finally understood the need - hence the up coming one-turner at Murray Bridge. WA has a kind of either/or track at Mandurah.

Anyway, all this stuff is predictable if authorities and others watch the trends. Sadly, their thinking and their actions are limited to the next 12 months - as evidenced by their current reactions to breeding problems, a long term matter if anything is.

The nature and nurture argument - breeding and training - is beyond me but perhaps a bit of each is involved.

My casual observation is that most trainers are far more concerned about the amount they are able to bet rather than the price they are taking. Very dangerous.