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Capping Sire Services - 2018FY and beyondpage  1 2 3 

Sandro Bechini
Australia
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Posts 19488
Dogs 15268 / Races 1856

18 Oct 2018 00:44


 (4)
 (2)


Agree with Steve and thought this topic deserved its own thread

These are the posts that were on the Spring Gun thread that relate to this topic

Sandro Bechini wrote:

Grant

The gene pool is getting smaller and smaller

With breeding at 50% of what it was, its time the authorities who are so called in charge of fostering the breed, fast tracked a policy to reduce the number of services any one stud can have per annum, rather than per quarter

Reason:

Instead of 216 per annum (54 per quarter) shouldn't be more than say 140 per annum

From the last Stud Book available Vol 65 there were 1270 litters born in Australia

Top 3

Barcia Bale 164
Kinloch Brae 80
Fabregas 80
Dyna Double One 74

398 litters in 4 sires or 31.33% of all litters/pups born attributed to 4 sires

Fernando Bale only had 49 in that season

In the next season, Vol 66 (17/18 whelps) FB is likely to go close to the 200 mark this year and Barcia will probably maintain his numbers

Project Forward

FB 200
BB 160
DDO 70
Fabregas 80

( I left KB out as I am assuming his semen stocks may be reducing)

Say with a 10% increase in breeding there is 1400 litters

That's 510 litters between 4 sires

Projection is 34.69% of all litters/pups being centered around 4 sires

Some would argue that these are the best sires and positive for the breed but I think in time it will be detrimental as we start to lose various damlines from the use of different sires

I believe the gene pool will become more diminished if we continue in this fashion

Perhaps it is a transitional phase whilst these sires are alive and well and once everyone has used them they will start diversifying again

But it concerns me to see 3 dogs in every race by the same sires

I still remember the days when most dogs were closely in bred to Temlee, he was that dominant

A restriction of services may see a further increase in price for these popular sires but IMHO, its a small price to pay for the stability of the breed and any price increase would increase the opportunity for newer sires & imported sires to be used more frequently and thus lead to a stronger industry over all

Apologize if any particular stud masters/stud owners have been offended but its a general view of the industry as I see it

steven martin wrote:

Couldn't agree more Sandro. I've been saying the exact same thing since we were hung out to dry.

I to don't want to offend owners or studmasters from potentially earning a quid, but for the betterment of the sport due to the decreasing numbers of whelpings, a new annual capping on sire should be urgently discussed.

As it stands this year and without naming any sires, up to the end of July, 1 sire has served 15.05% of all matings this year & another 14.67%. That's 30% of all matings.

Maybe somebody (with a bit more time) could start a new topic as this threads about Spring Gun.





Steven Martin
Australia
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Posts 7681
Dogs 180 / Races 66

18 Oct 2018 03:00


 (8)
 (2)


Good one Sandro.

As we no, breeding figures have been very unstable & unpredictable over the past couple of years.
I now believe whelping figures have reached rock-bottom in this country, but they're on there way back up again, slightly.
So to be fair and inline with the 54 per quarter quoter (216 per annum), a "Sliding Scale" could be used in conjunction with annual whelping figures.

For example, when the 54 per quarter rule was unforced, I believe it's fair to say that 3000 whelpings per year would be a happy medium to work with. So if we take 3000 whelpings and divided that figure by 216, it converts to a percentage of 14% per year, to those sires lucky enough to receive full books.

So this is how my "Sliding Scale" works. You take the total amount of litters whelped the year before and divide it by 14%, & a quoter that's fair and even is achieved yearly, on figures that are generated by the industry.

For example in -
2015, 2867 whelpings divided by 14% = 204 whelpings or 51 per 1/4.
2016, 1788 whelpings divided by 14% = 128 whelpings or 32 per 1/4.
2017, 1270 whelpings divided by 14% = 91 whelpings or 23 per 1/4.

Obviously, 2017 was the lowest whelping figures ever recorded since WW2, so I can hear some people crying poor with my evaluation. But it's only a "One-Off" as my figures for this year are showing that 1800 whelpings are achievable (give or take a little) by the end of the year, which converts to 128 whelpings or 32 per 1/4.
This system is simple and fair & will give the gene-pool in Australia more opportunity to survive.

Imo, if something like this is not introduced soon, colonial damlines will fade and shrink on a year by year basis.

Sure we're spoilt with the choices of any imported sire thru A.I which is a great thing & something a support 100% (& used recently)....but we still deserve the diversity that our ancestors have created & presented to us over generations of breeding, rather than watch these Australian dam & sire lines get swallowed up by a gene-pool that continually entertains only a handful of sires, on an annual basis.

Anyway, it's out there now. Both barrels are cocked. Fire away.


Sandro Bechini
Australia
(Verified User)
Posts 19488
Dogs 15268 / Races 1856

18 Oct 2018 03:08


 (5)
 (3)


steven martin wrote:

So to be fair and inline with the 54 per quarter quoter (216 per annum), a "Sliding Scale" could be used in conjunction with annual whelping figures.

For example, when the 54 per quarter rule was unforced, I believe it's fair to say that 3000 whelpings per year would be a happy medium to work with. So if we take 3000 whelpings and divided that figure by 216, it converts to a percentage of 14% per year, to those sires lucky enough to receive full books.

So this is how my "Sliding Scale" works. You take the total amount of litters whelped the year before and divide it by 14%, & a quoter that's fair and even is achieved yearly, on figures that are generated by the industry.

For example in -
2015, 2867 whelpings divided by 14% = 204 whelpings or 51 per 1/4.
2016, 1788 whelpings divided by 14% = 128 whelpings or 32 per 1/4.
2017, 1270 whelpings divided by 14% = 91 whelpings or 23 per 1/4.

Obviously, 2017 was the lowest whelping figures ever recorded since WW2, so I can hear some people crying poor with my evaluation. But it's only a "One-Off" as my figures for this year are showing that 1800 whelpings are achievable (give or take a little) by the end of the year, which converts to 128 whelpings or 32 per 1/4.

This system is simple and fair & will give the gene-pool in Australia more opportunity to survive.

A very logical solution Steve.

GA needs to entertain this ASAP



Sam Watson
Australia
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Posts 315
Dogs 0 / Races 0

18 Oct 2018 05:01


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I see what you are trying to say, and diversifying is key, but i really think it should be up to the owner/breeder to decide who they use.

If they want to use Barcia Bale and Fernando Bale then they should be able to. Nobody should be setting a cut off point and 1st in best dressed no matter how many others are using them. Why should other breeders tell someone how to breed?

I also think it is unfair on the owners of the stud dog. Imagine if you owned one of the top dogs, and some1 just said, nope, u can serve 50 bitches next year. Most people breed/buy/own/race for 15/20 years to find a good dog and make some good money, then have some1 come in and say u can only have so many service i think is unfair.




Bruce Teague
Australia
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Posts 2092
Dogs 0 / Races 0

18 Oct 2018 05:28


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Sandro,

I cannot possibly contribute to a technical subject such as this - but I can be alarmed.

I can also repeat my often repeated suggestion that this is precisely the sort of event which should or could be anticipated by an independent group charged with reporting annually on THE STATE OF THE BREED.

I shudder to think how GA would be competent to handle this task yet there is little alternative. Suffice to say that absolute independence of the review group is mandatory. It should work, for example, much like the Reserve Bank operates independently of government even though it has to deal with what the government creates.

Going down that road is much more likely to achieve what you want, never mind how brilliant your ideas are.

Ideally, a small group of top breeders could make submissions to every state calling for the establishment of the review group. Next time the states meet, they could then insist that GA sets up the review group independently.

Brilliant though you guys are, that would be much more likely to get action.

In any event, the subject is a very wide one - ie not just diversification but also health, disease, stamina etc etc. It also introduces a touchy area of restriction of trade and other legalities.


Michael Barry
Australia
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Posts 7405
Dogs 26 / Races 9

18 Oct 2018 06:55


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 (6)


just remember , that all state governments and authorities are all looking at the bigger picture for the industry ,,

and that is CLOSURE, have you spoken to anyone lately who can see a future for the industry beyond 5/10 years , i haven't,
myself personally im just going with the flow , (proceeding with caution)

so i say make HAY while the sun shines


Sandro Bechini
Australia
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Posts 19488
Dogs 15268 / Races 1856

18 Oct 2018 07:13


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Bruce

There is already a cap of 54 per quarter or 216 per annum per sire

The precedent has been set and no one has challenged it yet in a court of law.

Its been ok when there are 2500 to 3000 litters born per annum, but we are down to 1270 and might eventually get back to 1800 as Steve has alluded

It's not healthy in any genetic pool to have such domination by 3 or 4 sires, as what is transpiring right now

If it ever happens it is still a free market....if supply is restricted then all it means is that market forces will adjust prices until only those with large pockets or elite bitches can afford those dogs.




Sandro Bechini
Australia
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Posts 19488
Dogs 15268 / Races 1856

18 Oct 2018 07:15


 (6)
 (1)


Michael Barry wrote:

just remember , that all state governments and authorities are all looking at the bigger picture for the industry ,,

and that is CLOSURE, have you spoken to anyone lately who can see a future for the industry beyond 5/10 years , i haven't,
myself personally im just going with the flow , (proceeding with caution)

so i say make HAY while the sun shines

That's one of the problems Mick, a lot of short sighted people in this industry


Michael Barry
Australia
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Posts 7405
Dogs 26 / Races 9

18 Oct 2018 07:39


 (1)
 (1)


Sandro Bechini wrote:

Michael Barry wrote:

just remember , that all state governments and authorities are all looking at the bigger picture for the industry ,,

and that is CLOSURE, have you spoken to anyone lately who can see a future for the industry beyond 5/10 years , i haven't,
myself personally im just going with the flow , (proceeding with caution)

so i say make HAY while the sun shines

That's one of the problems Mick, a lot of short sighted people in this industry


agree sandro, but who or what is making these people take the short sighted view ,
i know their is positives here and there but there is a lot of negatives, certain sections of the industry are booming others not so , why im not sure ,,





Steven Martin
Australia
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Posts 7681
Dogs 180 / Races 66

18 Oct 2018 09:58


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Not everybody is going to agree with Sandro's, mine or others that may agree that its time a new sires cap was introduced to preserve diversity within the Australian pedigree, so this topic is health & alive....& that's a good thing too.
But IMO, those that don't agree are either relatively new to the industry (which I totally except as inexperience)...or are not thinking about the industries future which is disappointing but thinking more about what COULD BE in their hip pockets.
Sire fee's will always level out through demand. Just look at Brett Lee in his prime. $18,000 slowed down most breeders, BUT still, kept the owners hip pockets full of cash. Just ask the owners wife as he mortgaged the house.
And thank god there was a cap & his fee had no choice but to go skywards, as it gave the opportunity for dogs like - Where's Pedro, Bond, Trewly Special, Hallucinate, Superman, Collide, Meticulous, Cosmic Chief, Over Flo, Give Me Five, Regal Brett, Bank Manager, Crash & Ace Hi Rumble, all sons of the great Brett Lee the opportunity for breeders to choose another sire (in their opinion) that best suited their bitch(es).
Without a cap, those sires mentioned above could have ended up anywhere but here, & where would the industry be now without the opportunities I've described.


Mark Staines
Australia
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Posts 4499
Dogs 70 / Races 14

18 Oct 2018 16:55


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Does the Cap include Semen drawn for export ?



Jamie Quinlivian
Australia
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Posts 8727
Dogs 10 / Races 0

18 Oct 2018 19:07


 (6)
 (11)


Michael Barry wrote:

just remember , that all state governments and authorities are all looking at the bigger picture for the industry ,,

and that is CLOSURE, have you spoken to anyone lately who can see a future for the industry beyond 5/10 years , i haven't,
myself personally im just going with the flow , (proceeding with caution)

so i say make HAY while the sun shines

Totally agree Mick.
I believe they are working towards a total ban of the sport within 20 years.




Glenn Hatton
Australia
(Verified User)
Posts 4852
Dogs 92 / Races 98

19 Oct 2018 02:32


 (9)
 (1)


This is the problem with th greyhound industry. Participants have virtually no say, are never looked after or catered for when decisions are made...but they are usually the ones with most common sense & foresight.
This alteration to the cap has a lot of merit, why didnt someone from Greys Australasia think of it?? Bc they dont give a stuff


Michael Barry
Australia
(Verified User)
Posts 7405
Dogs 26 / Races 9

19 Oct 2018 02:50


 (1)
 (12)


Jamie Quinlivian wrote:

Michael Barry wrote:

just remember , that all state governments and authorities are all looking at the bigger picture for the industry ,,

and that is CLOSURE, have you spoken to anyone lately who can see a future for the industry beyond 5/10 years , i haven't,
myself personally im just going with the flow , (proceeding with caution)

so i say make HAY while the sun shines

Totally agree Mick.
I believe they are working towards a total ban of the sport within 20 years.


i personally think if mike baird had of involved all the states at the time he called the ban, it would have been all over now ,,
instead he tried to be the hero and go it alone,

anyone who cant see the bigger picture needs to change their classes
so make hay while the sun shines , because dark clouds are gathering

its an industry that authorities know cant be policed in its present form no matter what rules and regulations they bring in ,,

if it has any chance of survival it will be through large commercial kennels with full time welfare etc



Glenn Hatton
Australia
(Verified User)
Posts 4852
Dogs 92 / Races 98

19 Oct 2018 05:12


 (10)
 (4)


Everyone is entitled to their point of view...but as usual Mick Barry, youre always looking at a half empty glass (big yawn). Do yourself a favour, go buy a big caravan and go enjoy yourself as many other retirees are


Geoff Collins
Australia
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Posts 2010
Dogs 291 / Races 30

19 Oct 2018 08:16


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I dont share the negative perspective were in the midst of a fight, not a street fight or a bar room brawl but a fight for the minds of middle Australia

The survival of this sport/industry depends solely on us .. no one else. We over turned the ban in NSW with the support of Alan Jones, Ray Hadley, Paul Murray and co on the understanding that we represented rural battlers maligned by misguided city centric politicians and that we loved and cared for our dogs

Politicians respond to votes nothing else. If their constituents tell them were ok then well stay if they dont, were in trouble. We cannot ignore that fact, whether we like it or not.

We have to be smart and adapt policies that are acceptable to the general population of today and those policies revolve around Integrity and Welfare

There are the Ultra-Left-Greens that will never be satisfied but they are a minority .. albeit 10% of the voting population .. so we have to ensure that we dont give them any more ammunition to turn the general population against us

Good news is that figures out today show that support for the Shooters Party (SFFP) in Victoria has reached 3.8% up from 1.4% of the vote up at the last election and heres a party that fully supports our industry



Michael Barry
Australia
(Verified User)
Posts 7405
Dogs 26 / Races 9

19 Oct 2018 08:29


 (3)
 (4)


Glenn Hatton wrote:

Everyone is entitled to their point of view...but as usual Mick Barry, youre always looking at a half empty glass (big yawn). Do yourself a favour, go buy a big caravan and go enjoy yourself as many other retirees are

thank you for the advice , how much do i owe you ? these days advise costs money ?



Nathan Bendeich
Australia
(Verified User)
Posts 1225
Dogs 13 / Races 0

19 Oct 2018 09:27


 (2)
 (0)


Geoff Collins wrote:

I dont share the negative perspective were in the midst of a fight, not a street fight or a bar room brawl but a fight for the minds of middle Australia

The survival of this sport/industry depends solely on us .. no one else. We over turned the ban in NSW with the support of Alan Jones, Ray Hadley, Paul Murray and co on the understanding that we represented rural battlers maligned by misguided city centric politicians and that we loved and cared for our dogs

Politicians respond to votes nothing else. If their constituents tell them were ok then well stay if they dont, were in trouble. We cannot ignore that fact, whether we like it or not.

We have to be smart and adapt policies that are acceptable to the general population of today and those policies revolve around Integrity and Welfare

There are the Ultra-Left-Greens that will never be satisfied but they are a minority .. albeit 10% of the voting population .. so we have to ensure that we dont give them any more ammunition to turn the general population against us

Good news is that figures out today show that support for the Shooters Party (SFFP) in Victoria has reached 3.8% up from 1.4% of the vote up at the last election and heres a party that fully supports our industry

Well said Geoff ....as usual!
SFFP will smoke the greens next election , cant wait to watch it all unfold and let our industry stabilise as much as it can ....... with plenty still to achieve




Richard Gray
Australia
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Posts 2231
Dogs 11 / Races 9

19 Oct 2018 09:39


 (3)
 (6)


capping services will only push up the cost of a service... Not rocket science! Capping services will create an elite only industry. JMO.




Steven Martin
Australia
(Verified User)
Posts 7681
Dogs 180 / Races 66

19 Oct 2018 09:53


 (3)
 (1)


Richard Gray wrote:

capping services will only push up the cost of a service... Not rocket science! Capping services will create an elite only industry. JMO.


Yes it will push the cost of services up on the popular sires only but it won't create an elite only industry as you suggest.
What it will do is create an industry with more options for sires that have the credentials but don't get a chance, just like before when breeding was averaging 3000 whelpings a year, not 1270 like in the latest studbook.

It will also keep the Australian gene-pool alive and healthy.

Richard, I think you need to start at the beginning of this thread & absorb exactly what has been presented.

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