It's true that (breeding) numbers have been recovering over the last couple of years, therefore it's fair to jump ahead and conclude that dogs of racing age will increase later in 2019 - as stated.

Still, those numbers are way below pre-2015 levels. And then there is the modest but longstanding decline over a decade and a half to think about.

More important is to know why this is so. The live baiting bomb is an obvious factor but it is not sufficient to explain the long term change.

We know that GRV has run public attitude surveys but they were essentially about greyhound racing in general, not breeding or the incentive to become an owner, as such. Whatever, we don't know the results of those surveys as GRV has refused to tell us (on request, the advice is that they were "commercial in confidence").

GRV's reaction to the breeding shortfall has been to reduce a few fees and charges. Nothing wrong with that but it still indicates it has little idea of the underlying problem. It is guessing.

The GRNSW reaction was even sillier. As a response to live baiting, it surveyed trainers about the grading system. It paid no attention to possible reasons for or against potential owners investing in new stock.

Fiddling with some numbers will not help identify the negatives. Only learning about images and attitudes will do that. It's called research.

To coin a phrase, our two biggest authorities are just whistling as they walk through the cemetery.

(PS: This is one of the reasons why I am sceptical of big spending on Maiden series. If money is tight - which it is - I would rather see a $100k or so allocated to learning about how to develop the industry efficiently).

I think not.....

Probably not going to make a difference to numbers.. but its one less cost for an owner to have to pay. I don't think its going to see a massive uptick of dogs but $30-50 less an owner has to pay.

The $30 is always nice but it is just a continuation of GRV's previous "solution" to the problem of low numbers. It is also evidence that GRV has no idea of why breeding has not recovered faster so they again tried something that nobody will complain about.

My fearless prediction is also that the recovery will inch forward but will still be battling to get to pre-2015 levels and full fields. The problem is much deeper than a few bucks. Trimming at the edges will not do it but will enable GRV to report that they are "doing something".

GRSA possibly recognised that but their G6 solution could be two wrongs hopefully making a right.

I'm personally enjoying smaller feilds and making hay whilst the sun is out with prizemoney as full fields or near enough to them will be here by January 2020. The full impact of the downturn in breeding 18 months ago will be felt from April - Dec this year.

Rob,

From GA and GRV, Litters bred in Victoria were ...

2013 1003
2014 960
2015 926
2016 634
2017 409
2018 643

Numbers were much higher again between 2003 and 2010.

The numbers you mentioned may have referred to Names, which is a different thing and where other factors are involved.

GRV implies that 2019 will be better than 2018 but we will have to wait and see. Either way, it will not get anywhere near earlier (pre-live baiting) levels for some time, if at all. That tells us short fields will be around for a long time unless races are cut back.

Vic has tried to improve breeding activity by cutting some fees and by government offering bonuses (from Napthine days on). At no stage have these had any obvious effect.

Vic continues to run heavy Vicbred programs which can obviously not help raise field numbers.

Note that the full effect of live baiting was not felt until 2016/17 - ie there was an immediate impact but a further lag of some six months before reaching the bottom. Vic has recovered a little but still has a long way to go. Your prediction of an April-Dec 2019 bottoming is pretty right. After that is the great unknown.

They know exactly why (surprised you don't), they just don't want to get involved. Too messy, and it has nothing to do with LB.

I am sure we would all benefit from your inside knowledge.

Meantime, the entire process of breeding, field numbers, race distances and new regulations revolve around Feb 2015.

It was more to do with the uncertainty that was being espoused in the industry over a number of issues i.e. the effect of the ban in NSW, costs of breeding, restrictions placed on breeding, restriction on export of greyhounds and the responsibilities attached to the re-homing and euthanasia of greyhounds after their racing career was over

Apart from the NSW Ban which will be addressed when the 5-year review period is over, many of these issues are still relevant in the greyhound world today and holding back a lot of participants who are still living in the past whilst some have actually expanded their operations to take into account the changes in the new world of greyhound racing

Your points are all valid and important. However, they are 100% addressed to existing trainers and breeders.

Aside from them there are existing and prospective new owners who may be affected differently - although with some overlap. Borda, for example, very publicly halted all activity after Feb 2015, well before the ban.

As with every aspect of the code, there is always a need to refresh the ranks - owners included. To attract them, the greyhound package has to look bright, sparkling, interesting, modern and professional, etc. For a minority of the public, that works. For the majority, it doesn't.

Why not? Because since the 18th century greyhounds have occupied a particular place in the mind of the community, mostly negative. Yes, it has progressed enormously, albeit in fits and starts, but many people are not aware of that. Why again? Because we have not told them. As I have said repeatedly, we need GAP x 100.

Only then will numbers leap ahead.

100% correct but how ?

Mark,

That is absolutely true to the extent that squires, land owners and prominent farmers were involved in competitions and the community had different attitudes to animals. But as time passed the game became pretty squirrelly and then bookies started to take over things, odd tracks emerged, oversight was minimal, lower classes involved themselves often in dubious support occupations, ownership and control switched back and forth, governments came and went, and the Depression changed life once more. Victoria was much more disruptive than NSW which partly benefitted from the 1931 Royal Commission that sacked entrepreneurs and installed gov departments then GBOTA to run things.

Post WW2 was heavily tainted by live hare coursing which - sad to say - provided a heritage for live baiting in later years.

What I am saying is that there has been a progression since the late 18th century to today. Even earlier with Henry VIII on to Prince Albert (Victoria's hubby)and then with Banks bringing dogs with him on the Endeavour. With greyhounds often being an extended family exercise, it follows that habits are passed down from father to son and so on - as WDA found more recently.

That descent - and it is a descent - still colours many public attitudes. "The working man's sport" is an almost derogatory term but it reinforced in the public's mind that it was questionable. Not good enough for us! They now look down on it because of that history. Today, everything that is done starts from minus 10 and has to battle to climb to a reasonably acceptable level.

Neat black pants and white shirt on the way to the boxes is all fine and dandy but it will not get into the DNA of people who don't want to watch in the first place. The industry has to get into the mind of the bloke in the street, tell him the real story and show him how he can enjoy the fun.

And, yes, sadly greyhound racing has got caught up with the minority now campaigning against meat, milk and eggs to say nothing of rare parrots and lizards. But they are a minority and can be overcome by convincing the majority that good stuff is available.

Be proactive, not reactive. GAP x 100.

Does GRV realise this? I doubt it. They are too busy telling us how good they are. The real problem is not the dogs - it's the people behind them or the ones that should be and could be but are not.

GRV (Lynch) blamed the Victorian breeding downturn "on the back of the NSW shutdown and about-flip". Logically, and especially had the ban continued, NSW dogs should have been thundering down the highway to the land of milk and honey. They didn't. The disease, figuratively and statistically, caused suffering the same way in both states. But you can't fix the disease unless you know what's causing it.