And $285k in prizemoney, Kev, which I would gamble that would about $285k more than Bruce has ever won on the punt in his life

"Your marking the dog on it as a betting proposition".

That's precisely what I said - you are repeating my words. We do not actually disagree.

But in this case there is an elephant in the room. Over the last several years there has been a general degradation in staying quality. That means you get a lot of "oncers" - one good run never to be repeated. Or you get a field like the one at WP last Saturday where the litter takes it in turns to win or a theoretically lesser dog like Ebby Ripper comes home (a genuine stayer but not a quick one). (NB: why has Poco lost its edge?).

In the Bekim family you have a big percentage that are slow out but can run on - but seldom very quickly.

Sweet It Is was a fine money spinner for connections (when healthy) but was a hopeless betting proposition because of its racing habits and lousy prices. But it could stay all day.

Xylia Allen was a brilliant racer on her day but could not back up a second time around. Yes, I am aware of the WPK record but that was followed by a fading run when a short fav the next week. Her petrol tank was half empty. She was really optimised over 500/600.

Miata is by far the best racer of your list and is a genuine stayer.

Tornado Tears should be up there, too, but he is blotting his copybook now due to his personal racing habits. So be it. You have to deal with it. But, if two-out with Fanta Bale he would wipe the floor with it. Fanta Bale was a marvel for the owner/trainer due to its consistency but also because it had very average opposition. In my view it, like several others, was optimised at 600/650 (see also Fallen Zorro mentioned elsewhere).

In my book, "good" means consistent and quick. In yours, it means $$$. Both have their uses.

I told you so four days ago! "But in this case there is an elephant in the room. Over the last several years there has been a general degradation in staying quality. That means you get a lot of "oncers" - one good run never to be repeated. Or you get a field like the one at WP last Saturday where the litter takes it in turns to win or a theoretically lesser dog like Ebby Ripper comes home (a genuine stayer but not a quick one). (NB: why has Poco lost its edge?)."

NSW' distance rep at Cannington will be the (overall) weakest of the Finn litter, one rarely capable of getting down to 42s. And I hear no answers to my Poco question.

Having said that, Bruce from the punting perspective cites Miata etc. Very consistent distance dog, a bit of a freak and definitely the Winx of greyhound racing. So as a consistent champion product it's hard to take away from where Bruce is coming from.

All I'll say to you both is that money doesn't simply go away and disappear. It just goes somewhere else. And you could both agree to diagree till the cows come home on that. But for every disappointed punter there's some stoked owners/trainers and connections and at other times vice-versa. That's the nature of the game.

There are two times which define the worth of a dog - the first sectional and the overall time. 2nd sectionals and run home times are poor guides because (a) they are affected by other events and/or (b) you can't be sure which ran what.

That's not an opinion but a fact determined by 20 years of statistical analysis. Of course, there will be odd exceptions at either end of the scale but not too many.

For example, you might find the odd case where a noted slow beginner miraculously jumps in front and roars around the track with a big lead. But what happens in the home straight? It fades. It has used up its petrol. Maybe it flops over the line, maybe not. No-one can predict any of that.

Another case is Sweet It Is, or perhaps also Electra. Both could occasionally jump quite well but then they always back-pedalled for reasons of their own before coming again in the last 100m. Today I am getting worried that Tornado Tears is acquiring similar habits???

If Fanta Bale was in the Perth Nationals we would have no worries working out what she would do. But with this lot we are in the lap of the gods. Tornado Tears should brain them but it seems it has lost its mojo. It's likely to be very short and is therefore a poor bet.

As for the sprint - whatever leads around the corner should win. It is not so much that I classify Cannington as "just a leaders' track" but that in top class races it is unusual for the leader to be run down. That is, the 2nd sectional and Run Home are irrelevant. The only thing that will stop that would be two equal leaders hassling each other.

But the Distance race is a whole different story.

Bruce no one has bothered to answered your poco question due to many factors

You seem to have an incredible nack of down playing any sort of runner no matter what they achieve or times they run , extremely disappointing to all connections and readers in general , this then leads to many points of disagreements that no one really cares about and in the end the substance of which started the debate is long lost

Its a no win for replier ,trainer or owner and most important the talented chaser !

Ill answer your question and show you all of the above to ring true

Poco lost its edge ?

Many factors or opinions come into play I believe , but note she has finished 1st or 2nd in 4 of her last 6 GRP races ! Dream to own something of this caliber

1. 79 starts
2. Shes a distance runner , not the first chaser to come in and out of races when decides to and wont be the last !
Hence breeders dont use distance stud dogs

3. Shes by Fernando bale , IMOP many others are doing this same pattern
I would never describe Fernando as a sire traits as ferocious
He did have one , but it has no nuts
4.Well travellled
5.strict or different rules and regs to abide by eg. No finish ons

Heres a few reasons that could explain why poco isnt in a purple streak that she has displayed before

Yet the public made her favourite last week and all lost their dough in a fading run in moderate time after having every chance. The downturn - if you can call it that - started during and after her trip to Melbourne (a failure).

It is common for a dog to have ups and downs in form but there is usually a reason for it - niggles/illness/unfit/overracing/wrong distances/aging/whatever.

I accept that, providing I know about it. With Poco, I don't. In fact, where she was once far superior to the others in the litter, they are now doing better - while Veloce has historically been the weakest of them (which might be partly why she has gone back to the 600s on occasions) and is now to represent the state??? Hello?

The success of any sport revolves around one word - excellence. If you don't have that you are always behind the eight ball.

The greyhound staying caper does not qualify. Not even with Tornado Tears - it used to but no longer (consider also the previous Tornado Tears "hot paw" exercise - for which we never got a satisfactory answer).

I am trying to imagine what would have happened had these situations occurred at Randwick; the newspapers would be all over it and probably the stewards, too. The mob would put on a demo as they came back to scale. The trainer would be extensively quizzed. Punters would be discouraged, the industry would lose. (Indeed, that is precisely what is going on in Queensland today at the gallops and trots).

Meanwhile, would I bet on the National Distance race (if I were still a punter, which I am not)? No way. That's the test, not whether mugs in pubs throw in a few dollars. Either way, none of us are obliged to be complimentary to connections if their charges do not warrant it. Our job is to separate the wheat from the chaff. Pick winners.

Horses v greyhounds and occurrences in each race have zero comparison
One sport is controlled by human interaction from morning to during race and back home again
The other is left in the lap of luck with zero human involvement once boxed
The difference?
A horse can be encouraged ,persuaded or even taught on the run !
What does this do , it gives it fast tracked confidence

A greyhound doesnt have this luxury and if you havent noticed it can take the slightest negative experience eg. bump for a greyhound to never race as it did the week before
If you had trained a greyhound Bruce you would learn quick smart that you are only as good as your last run
One week you can be on the top and days later you can be down in the gutter
Until you do this , unfortunately it is something you simply cant comprehend let alone understand !

Whether you bet a dollar or $1000 on greyhounds , both types of punters are fully aware of the repercussions involved in greyhound racing
Thats why its so attractive and so tragic at the same time

A punter will always go again Bruce , or let me rephrase that , 9 out of 10 will go again and the one that leaves eg you , will never be missed
Hence the greyhound tab % increase or growth in comparison to the other 2 codes in decrease mode

All sport Bruce is run on opinion to reach for highest standard possible
It still doesnt mean it will always be achieved or the correct opinion comes to fruition
Look at this weekend
Sports punters on league , how many times do you put a bet on a team only to find out numbers of players arent 100% until after kick off
Eg Moses Embye for the tigers who lasted 2 runs
One team played with 16 men and the other 17 and the tigers lost , they knew in warm up he wasnt right ! Guess what they chanced it and got it wrong

So do you think everyone who you classify as a serious punter are up in arms or a mob are going to stand out the front of NRL head quarters
I think not , they will go again and load up on the next quickest thing

My point is if you think because of one odd or unique occurrence that surrounded TT at wenty (where opinions got it wrong ) will tarnish the stayers events for the rest of the year , I have to disagree

From memory there was a horse in the last of couple of years that gave up the chase aswell
Had to retrial many times and has since retired
It was a grp winner to over the sprint , some even called it a champion (grey horse)
The great Chautauqua! How many times or chances did they give this guy ? 6 times
More importantly thats 6 times the officials or trial review officials got it WRONG
Pretty sure one of them was at the highly esteemed Randwick course
Id love to hear your version of acceptance on this debacle ( in your standards of excellence) in comparison to a one off with TT which was dealt with and corrected appropriately or swiftly after one wrong ! With track and box mat altercations days later also

In terms of Chautauqua,Pretty sure there wasnt a mob or papers squeezing it to death when it first flopped as fav , it was more a result of everyone hoping hed return to his best , get my drift ........

In summary Bruce you write some good stuff , but commenting on these runners and the inbetweens that go on with them when youve never walked in their path for a single day is where you come up short in understanding the smallest or simplest of things surrounding them ......... they are animals Bruce not machines , they can change overnight and often do

Nothing new

Ps. What originally started as a response to Poco losing her edge has now drifted off to TT , Randwick and horses and of course the highly predictable and of no surprise or shock the subject of mugs in pubs and pro gamblers ?

Original substance lost ...... like I said it would
Nice chatting Bruce I cant help any further

Cheers

You are able to talk in some detail about Chautauqua because of the intensive coverage from newspapers and stewards. That's my point.

"A punter will always go again Bruce , or let me rephrase that, 9 out of 10 will go again and the one that leaves eg you , will never be missed"

"eg you" is already being missed. The bottom has long since fallen out of the TAB market (making it unusable), replaced by rip-off pricing in corporate turnover initiated by blokes with fingers, thumbs and a little gadget, not brains. Hence the long succession of odds-on favourites going around and losing. No punter in his right mind would take those odds - but a mug might.

One day, it is my hope that the training sector and the gambling/punting sector will learn more about each other - what they do and why. It is certainly not true today.

Meantime, we can all be thankful that greyhounds - or many of them - will roar around the track in the hope of catching a bit of fluff.

And, actually, quite a lot of NRL spectators have been thrown out after abuse of players and referees - same with AFL and Soccer. Many would then go off to have a bet on the dogs, although I have seen many thrown out of licensed clubs, too.

Bruce, normally I wouldn't bite but on your comments above.

1. You will not bet on the National Distance Championship this year. Allegedly owing to the inference of lack of quality or predictability in the forthcoming race? If so, why even bother commenting other than to whine.

2. Regarding charges and connections - well I think whoever wins (on their day) deserves some level of compliments and gratitude for even participating in the first place. Not everyone wants to lob over to WA anyway, especially if their dogs don't travel well or there are other events closer by that seem more worthy to the connections and better suited to the dog.

3. The industry as a whole owes punters nothing, but it does try to establish a product to compete against other viable punting products. The choice to punt specifically on greyhounds is yours and yours alone. If you don't like the product or its perceived degradation, there are now markets available to bet on womens water polo in Helsinki, Finland as an example. All markets compete for the same disposable punting dollars.

4. When the Industry loses sight of the supplier (trainers and connections), the market ceases to exist. At the end of the day, I don't envy the administration side of things because it's a balance and a very delicate one to achieve a balance of welfare/social license, encourage growth by incenting owning/training/breeding activities, establishing a product that consumers will punt, and delivering a profit model that is sustainable.

The bottom line is this -

If the Industry loses sight of the customer - it's over.
If the Industry loses sight of the suppliers - it's over.
If the Industry cannot or fails to adapt to new competition - it's over.

But the puzzle is so much more complex now than it ever was before - mug punters will bet on the pokies, or on cartoon racing (Trackside) etc. Professional punters most of them have moved on to high stakes poker, other gaming and a few are left in the Thoroughbreds.

Greyhound racing in general struggles to find a place and a fit with all the sports betting and virtual betting that surrounds it.

But good luck balancing all that. Over a much longer period of time I suspect greyhound racing will be relegated to the history books. For now there is a market, and there is some growth in limited areas and mostly decline. Basically we are not excluded from general Darwinism and the laws of 'adapt in order to survive'.

Twenty years from now, greyhound racing will still exist but it will be so much smaller, so much more regulated and so much more predictable because essentially residual trainers left will be effectively 'employees' of the Racing Authority in their jurisdictions. That's where I see it going.

I suppose time will tell if I got it right.

It is interesting to see your views of the industry - much of which I agree with. But you are off base on some items.

First, I stopped betting and doing the form some time back, not because I don't want to but because I can't. The product offered to me is physically unacceptable for reasons I have explained earlier in some detail. You alluded to them when you mentioned pro punters disappearing.

Second, for a decade or so I have been rabbitting on about the decline of stayers and the failure of the industry to even recognise that or do anything sensible about it. In sympathy, this is why you are seeing a steady increase in the proportion of shorter races (400m or less) - well over 60%. (Yes, it is not a simple subject). Leaving aside the shortage of dogs, this is one of the two major factors retarding the industry; the other is the failure to take the sport to the general public.

That's why I picked up on the upcoming Nationals - a clear illustration of the challenge ahead. Not the sprints, where we have quality racers, just the stayers.

Happily for the moment, the mugs are sustaining industry finances but just imagine how much better it could be if we also had a steady stream of decent punters turning up, week after week. In ideal circumstances, increases of 50% to 100% are available.

Here's an indirect example. Last Sunday, Capalaba, newly added to the TAB ranks, battled to get close to $3k on the Win tote in NSW (which now includes Queensland). In distant Victoria that figure was more like $4.5k. Why is that? Are Victorians more suited to straight track racing. Was it because Healesville was not running? Are Victorians keener gamblers? Who knows?

Finally, re "If the Industry loses sight of the suppliers - it's over". Mate, state authorities are besotted with watching over suppliers - ie owners and trainers. It's what they and most of their staff do 90% of the time. A high profile CEO once informed me they were his "customers". Only after much to and fro would he admit that there were real customers as well.

Tips for the National Distance - a repeat of the Victorian run-off but I still would not bet on it.

You talked about the future and I mentioned I had several reasons for discontinuing punting.

There's one more reason now.

All our form programs were based on DOS format, which requires operating within WIN7 or older frameworks. Now Microsoft advise support for WIN7 will terminate at the end of 2019. It's not so much WIN7 itself that would worry me as it is that all the peripherals will also dump WIN7 compatibility from their systems. No keyboards, no mouse, no printer.

So I am forced to move now to WIN10 where the 64-bit operation does not like old 32-bit programs and therefore our Greybase suite is no more. Technically, there may be odd ways of inserting it in WIN10 but it would be unreliable and messy anyway.

My related point - and why I mention it here - is that hundreds of Greybase programs were eagerly bought during the 1990s, less so during the 2000s and effectively none now. The market for programs used by keen students has dried up, not just for us but even earlier for the sole competitor. Tipsters and Mysteries now dominate.

We could have upgraded Greybase to Windows format but it would have required a huge amount of work with little reward in sight. So it did not happen.

In any event, what could you use it on? TAB and corporate pools are completely unreliable or too small to bother with or just rip-offs. Even Superman, Mandrake and Batman could not make money in books approaching 130%. TABCORP has not helped by introducing a string of dumb products (Mysteries, Boxing, Next Up, and now the nonsensical Odds/Evens) all of which serve to destroy the eventual dividends. So, when you win, you still lose.

The future is already determined - mugs only.

There is only one solution - merge all the betting into a single national pool. But you would also need to fix all the tracks as well - bar the 461m at Hobart.

PS I see you liked the old Cannington. That would have been one of the four most biased tracks in the country, and disruptive with it, according to long term statistics and observation. (Wenty, Bulli and Launceston are the others). Still, that does not mean you could not win - I once did very well in a Perth Cup because the mob failed to realise the boom dog was poorly boxed. You needed to be well placed to get around the corner well.