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Roger Spry
United Kingdom
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Posts 69
Dogs 0 / Races 0

25 Jun 2018 11:57


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Bruce Teague wrote:

Roger,

At my last count there were 125 different grades in Oz, all due to different states coming up with a brainwave and adding yet another grade, year after year. It's still happening with Veterans races, as we speak. Even so, Grades 1, 2 and 3 are seldom used, while Victoria had the brilliant idea of using a "No Penalty" grade, if you can call it a grade.

My observation is that the bureaucrats who do this are forever fielding calls from trainers (who all have different ideas) to change the system to better suit their personal needs. Some of those emerge from clubs (meaning more owner/trainers) which have some flexibility to stage different sorts of races - eg those limited to 1-2 wins, or 1-3 wins, or 1-4 wins, and so on.

Generally, the system is aimed at keeping lesser dogs on the track, which is not a bad thing in itself. But you then get to the stage where you start asking "Is that all there is?".

OK, there are top races, too, but the middle ground is skinny, particularly at provincial tracks but often now at the major city tracks as well.

What was once a fairly attractive mix of Grades 1 to 5, where everyone knew what the differences in standard were, has descended into a mish-mash of undecipherable quality. They are just dogs.

The club graders who once sorted out all the 5th Graders into peer groups have been replaced by a computer which could not care less. It is owned and operated by people who worry about the process, not the outcome. The computer and the internet are marvellous assets but we are just not using them well.

Above all, the industry has become trainer-centric, not customer-centric. Unfortunately, trainers don't generate funds, only customers can do that and they are disappearing like a flood down the Darling river.

Here's a test. A plane load of Inuits has just arrived from northern Canada, their pockets stuffed full of oil money. They know dogs. It's in their DNA. Dogs are their lifeline. So explain to them how 125 Grades work so they can have a bet.

PS: Fighters are an important issue but the numbers are actually very small. FTC numbers are much higher and would be higher again if you counted dogs that never see a track.

PS2: Yes, some feature races do attract good turnover. However, week to week racing shows that the quality of the race is a poor guide to turnover. Much more important is the day of the week and the time of the day. Mug gamblers!

PS3: Your Betfair comments must come from fairyland or Northern Canada, not here. In any case, Betfair refuses to divulge its annual turnover and checking race by race data is laborious and unhelpful, except for well-equipped and highly skilled punters who are probably not much interested in dogs anyway. The key issue here is that a modest pie has now been split into ever-declining smaller pieces, and Betfair is just one of many.


hi Bruce, you put a lot of good things on about the greyhound industry, however as a pro punter for many years i do know my betting inside out .
the fact is people are now betting on the exchanges more than ever before, if you do not understand this you are the one in fairyland.
i list a few facts for Monday June 25th
race 3 bathurst 15,084 uk pounds on betfair
race 5 Northam 25,408
race 9 Bathurst 19,937
race 9 Northam 17,207
race 1 Albion p 15,962
race 6 Nowra 10,208
race 5 Angle p 10,274
race 8 Nowra 13,035
race 6 Grafton 11,273
race 7 Angle p 10,987
race 7 Albion p 13,392
race 8 Angle p 13,438
race 8 Albion p 12,108
race 7 Launceston 11,372
race 9 Angle p 10,561
race 11 tralgon 19,937

as you can see betting on greyhound racing is not on the decline.

do any of the exchanges sponsor a single greyhound race in oz
as far as i know ,they do not in the uk .

keep up the good work that you do Bruce,

on the subject of the shortage of hounds ,it would be good to know the number of hounds and percentage that do not make it to the track.

all i keep hearing is , too many are to slow ,fight ,or do not chase , can you shed a bit of light on this topic



Bruce Teague
Australia
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Posts 2092
Dogs 0 / Races 0

27 Jun 2018 06:25


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Roger,

We are getting off topic here, although betting turnover is a contributor to numbers bred and racing.

Pounds old chap? We got rid of those fifty years ago. But good to see your locals are making a game of it there. Astonishing really as, for example, the figure you quote for Northam R5 would far exceed the club's wildest dreams for all betting - not just Betfair.
Northam is a low standard country track with much smaller patronage than the state's two main tracks. Many of the others you list are in the same bracket.

I have no idea of Betfair volume here as it is too much trouble to dig deep into their system (unless you are a regular user). In part, that may be due to the relatively modest amount bet on most grey races in total - and that is split up amongst two totes and half a dozen significant "corporate bookies" (who are not bookies at all but financial manipulators who will cancel your account or halve your bet in a flash).

Betfair also refuses to advise annual turnover so any gross Oz figures would need an asterisk to understand them.

Betfair has also been suspect from a corporate viewpoint, with its ultimate UK owner allegedly considering a shutdown (albeit it was half Oz owned) Obviously, poor turnover would have influenced that.

The grey betting proportions vary and there are multi-state subtotals to look into - each state recording differently. However, the corporates have moved up from nothing to about one third of the total.

Corporates do a lot of sponsorship (with your money) due to their very low costs. Betfair very little.

Typically, a bit over 3,000 litters are registered annually and 12,000 dogs named. To 2016 there were 14,000 dogs racing in any one year but that and the other numbers have been in a state of flux since the Feb 2015 downturn in breeding (now recovering somewhat).

While there would be many dogs that fail to meet racing standards the proportion of those that do race and that are guilty of fighting/chasing convictions is fairly small. It is barely possible to get a figure as it needs you to clamber through each state's reports and I really can't be bothered. It is possible that whatever you hear are exaggerated comments.

Remember the vast majority of betting ingredients are a function of what happens at the gallops. Grey turnover is puny by comparison.


Ian Bradshaw
Australia
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Posts 251
Dogs 6 / Races 0

27 Jun 2018 09:24


 (1)
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Bruce Teague wrote:

Roger,

I have no idea of Betfair volume here as it is too much trouble to dig deep into their system (unless you are a regular user).

Bruce ,

I have just gone to the great trouble of looking at Betfair for you, over the past 30 minutes.

Wentworth Park R3 $15,564 matched - market of 104%
Cranbourne R4 $13,164 " " " " " 103%
Darwin R7 $10,168 " " " " " 108%
Rockhampton R4 $9,200 " " " " " 104%
Ballarat R4 $25,237 " " " " " 105%

There is a commission to be paid on the winnings by the successful punters.

I assume these are the worldwide figures, shown in AUD.




Bruce Teague
Australia
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Posts 2092
Dogs 0 / Races 0

27 Jun 2018 22:34


 (1)
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Ian,

Many thanks for the info. I take it you are a member/subscriber - I am not. That sort of info is not readily available (but I may have been looking in the wrong place) but match by match info on footie codes is??? Still, it raises more questions than answers.

Using the WPK race as an example ...

1. The Betfair matched figure was higher than the Win tote on TAB/NSW $6813, or TAB/Vic $12117, suggesting the Betfair money came from overseas in the main.
2. The upside down nature of the above NSW and Vic figures is really odd.
3. The race was for a mob of scrubbers (nothing personal guys) and was won in 43.64 (slow track) or 31 lengths outside the record.
4. Investors could have been made up of either brilliant systematic mathematicians or mug gamblers. It is impossible to see how serious punters would take an interest.
5. Corporate money is unknown, which is normal. We'll tell you what's good for you.
6. Betfair (in extended conversations with me) does publish event by event turnover but refuses to provide monthly or annual data. That means it is impossible to determine Australian betting turnover accurately. Trends will be hidden.
7. Having said all that, it would seem that punters would be better off patronising Betfair (small commission) than the corporates (ripoff prices/conditions) or the TAB (pools too small).
8. I would also give Betfair some brownie points as it tries to educate investors about their system and how to assess the runners. In contrast, TABCORP just tells you how to fill out a ticket while the corporates would not give you the time of day.
9. I once wrote in the former QGRA Journal that "Betfair is here to stay so everyone should get used to it". So the Chairman sacked me. How times change!
10. Betfair Australia exists today only because Packer bought half of it and convinced the Tasmanian Premier to give it a license. Every other racing and government jurisdiction in the country was opposed, often quoting grossly misleading info from the UK, or, in the case of the then-AJC at Randwick, getting a tame management consultant to find that the legalisation of Betfair and the corporates would result in the death of racing as we know it. Ho hum.



Charles W Mizzi
Australia
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Posts 684
Dogs 1 / Races 1

27 Jun 2018 23:15


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charles w mizzi wrote:

Nicholas Arena wrote:

Meadows Wednesday has only one maiden race it has only six starters - one has had 7 starts - another 13 starts- another 20 starts - another 33. The two remaining dogs are having their 2nd starts.
There use to be up to four maiden races at the Victorian Wednesday metro meeting.
Contrast this situation with the tier 3 meetings - plenty of maiden races - full fields over short courses. Trend is, city racing will continue to struggle to find sufficient genuine 500 metre dogs.Anyone who has any knowledge of the Industry knows it is not purely a mathematical exercise to establish the number of dogs required to maintain race field versus pups that need to be bred - there has always and will be, an element nature controls - 500 plus metre dogs are not simply designed on paper, irrespective of how hard the breeder tries to bred strength.Nature ultimately determines the vast majority. Yes sometimes certain sires throw strength - but invariably the next generation won't replicate the same performance traits. Short of cloning I am not sure you can get around this basic.
It would be interesting to know if anyone has the historical data that breaks down or estimates the number of pups to race over 500 metres or further versus the number of dogs to race.
And NSW is talking about bringing a puppy bond - good luck with that.

Nicholas, the fields are not drawn yet(25/6)but by the numbers there will only be 9 races, not all full fields, no reserves except for one maybe. 74 usable noms and 4 unusable.

Looks like the overbreeding myth was more than a myth, of course at the time they were talking about wastage. Ya, the puppy bond crap is an underhanded low act, in any case I reckon the industry will run out of money sooner rather than later in NSW.


Sandown extended Noms (47) and end up the next day making 12 races (6 seven dog fields, 6 eight dog fields no reserves) Can the GRV CEO guarantee no dogs will be over raced or harmed by the myth perpetuated by GA and GRV. Maybe get the old calculator to sought it out. Does not work like that though, does it!


Bruce Teague
Australia
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Posts 2092
Dogs 0 / Races 0

28 Jun 2018 23:20


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Chas,

The two weekly "Provincial" meetings in Melbourne should never have been introduced in the first place (15+ years ago - Stephens). All they did was to drag noms from the better country tracks, thereby lowering their average field quality. And maidens could have been run in Timbuktu.

This point arose simply because Melbourne always had two clubs and therefore two tracks, both circle tracks. Then they demanded an extra meeting each so as to improve their economics. OK, but it came at a cost which was never assessed.

Financially, Melbourne and Victoria would be better off if it had only one city track which conducted both meetings. (This was also true in Sydney, although the loss of a one-turn track was harmful in itself, albeit it was inevitable).

For practical and financial reasons, the better regional clubs are in a better position to promote to the local community and get more patronage for the numerous multi-million dollar investments in facilities, most of which are used only a couple of times a year. They are very expensive trainers' lounges, while Ballarat could stage a footie match in theirs.

As for holding open nominations - I always wonder what sort of dogs suddenly become available. Why were they not there in the first place? Secondly, no doubt many were considered not up to the 500m so to go to town is very much a second-best option, whereas the provincials would offer offer more suitable distance options.

The basic principle should be that - in line with populations - every capital city warrants one or sometimes two weekly meetings and no more. All further meetings should go to provincial centres where the industry can get better bang for its buck. Always assuming it puts in the effort, of course.

All that is confused by the current shortage of starters, but that's a different subject. The underlying principle remains and is reinforced by the fact that on occasions (Cup meetings) the provincials do very well. What we are talking about is a modest step down - ie what puts meat and potatoes on the table throughout the year.

What we don't need are $250k-$500k events as such. $100k would do just as well. More important for prosperity is what happens for the other 50 weeks.

If greyhound racing were a supermarket or a bank or a post office, it would shut down Meadows and convert it to a skating rink, a fun park, a football ground or whatever. (Nothing personal, folks, it's just business).



Roger Spry
United Kingdom
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Posts 69
Dogs 0 / Races 0

29 Jun 2018 06:04


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 (1)


Bruce Teague wrote:

Roger,

We are getting off topic here, although betting turnover is a contributor to numbers bred and racing.

Pounds old chap? We got rid of those fifty years ago. But good to see your locals are making a game of it there. Astonishing really as, for example, the figure you quote for Northam R5 would far exceed the club's wildest dreams for all betting - not just Betfair.
Northam is a low standard country track with much smaller patronage than the state's two main tracks. Many of the others you list are in the same bracket.

I have no idea of Betfair volume here as it is too much trouble to dig deep into their system (unless you are a regular user). In part, that may be due to the relatively modest amount bet on most grey races in total - and that is split up amongst two totes and half a dozen significant "corporate bookies" (who are not bookies at all but financial manipulators who will cancel your account or halve your bet in a flash).

Betfair also refuses to advise annual turnover so any gross Oz figures would need an asterisk to understand them.

Betfair has also been suspect from a corporate viewpoint, with its ultimate UK owner allegedly considering a shutdown (albeit it was half Oz owned) Obviously, poor turnover would have influenced that.

The grey betting proportions vary and there are multi-state subtotals to look into - each state recording differently. However, the corporates have moved up from nothing to about one third of the total.

Corporates do a lot of sponsorship (with your money) due to their very low costs. Betfair very little.

Typically, a bit over 3,000 litters are registered annually and 12,000 dogs named. To 2016 there were 14,000 dogs racing in any one year but that and the other numbers have been in a state of flux since the Feb 2015 downturn in breeding (now recovering somewhat).

While there would be many dogs that fail to meet racing standards the proportion of those that do race and that are guilty of fighting/chasing convictions is fairly small. It is barely possible to get a figure as it needs you to clamber through each state's reports and I really can't be bothered. It is possible that whatever you hear are exaggerated comments.

Remember the vast majority of betting ingredients are a function of what happens at the gallops. Grey turnover is puny by comparison.


Hi Bruce,

if as you say 3000 litters a year are born and 12000 dogs are named, the maths do not stack up,
as most people know the average number of pups born to each litter has been 5.6 ever since records began.
i find it hard to believe that 4 per litter is correct.
i think i am right in saying that in the USA most dogs are named between 4-12 months old ,by doing this a better record can be kept.
i used to name all of mine very early, did not wait till they were ready to race as seems to be the case in Australia.
in Ireland the top breeders name the dogs at twelve months old, if not before.
if the naming fee was reduced would it help to keep a better record of the number of hounds that do not make it to the track.
maybe a new rule should be brought in.
1. no dogs can be broken in before they have been named

if your facts are right Bruce, then the wastage is very high.
maybe you can double check your numbers Bruce. before i say any more on the subject.


Bruce Teague
Australia
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Posts 2092
Dogs 0 / Races 0

29 Jun 2018 22:58


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Roger,

Fools rush in but ....... we have to rely on Greyhounds Australasia statistics which are totals of individual numbers reported by each state. The clerical discipline and usage of this data is woeful but that's what we have.

Some states publish more current figures in various ways.

Officially, the most recent national data is for 2015.

Named 12,340
Litters 3,143

The live baiting saga of Feb 2015, followed by lots of government intervention, led to big falls in breeding and racing numbers which are only now recovering somewhat. So any more current figures will not be typical anyway.

However, the trend of a decade or so is for a slight decrease. The overlapping trend is that more out of each litter are now moving onto the racetrack to populate low-standard extra races for slow dogs.

Add all that up and you get an overall drop in average field quality and lots more empty boxes.

Nationally, there are now stringent rules about lifetime reporting of every dog, including strenuous efforts to avoid euthanasia and much promotion of the Greyhounds As Pets program. So historical data is rubbish, future data should be good.

The generally accepted average figure for pups/litter is 6.5. I can't advise on the timing of the naming process but obviously data for Naming and Services/Litters would not be synchronised, so your logic of 4 per litter is false. Also remember that the breeding and the naming could take place in different states, perhaps depending on the domicile of the dam. Others might know more than me.

For more tidbits on breeding check Roger Clark's Victorian greyhoundweekly.com.au.

When all this gets sorted out and data matures we will have a much better answer for your query on dogs making it to the track. Meantime, everything is guesswork. I have heard it said that only 27% of dogs make it to a city (ie major) track, but that is not verifiable.

NB: In Victoria alone, Litters decreased from 926 in 2015 to 634 in 2016. Current trends show much stronger figures.

NB2: Victoria also has had probably the strongest program of breeding incentives or subsidies in the country, as well as an extensive program of races limited to "Vicbred" dogs. None of that has had the slightest effect on breeding patterns. They are kidding themselves.

NB3: The above suggests that short term cash is far less influential on breeding than are overall or national factors such as quality, industry image or economics. Happily, Fernando Bale at $8,800 a time is fully booked out (and its progeny are killing them on the track). It is now closing in on Brett Lee proportions.




Bruce Teague
Australia
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Posts 2092
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02 Jul 2018 00:09


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Roger,

To complete my earlier remarks, I checked out a few weeks of breeding reports from greyhoundweekly.com.au run by Roger Clark.

These may tend to be representative of better sires etc but that should not invalidate the overall figures.

Over 84 litters the average number of pups was 7.5. They varied from 1 to 12.


Nathan Absalom
United Kingdom
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Posts 128
Dogs 0 / Races 0

02 Jul 2018 05:34


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For the record, I had 6.3 pups/litter from the monthly whelping notices on thedogs for NSW from over 1100 litters in 2014. I have crossed checked to a sample of around 100 litters in Victoria and get the same. The graph is here:

EXTERNAL LINK


Michael Barry
Australia
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Posts 7402
Dogs 26 / Races 9

02 Jul 2018 09:24


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all pups should be named after earbranding and no paper work released until its done , very easy way to keep track of things

and for a small fee people who bought pups be allowed prior to racing to change the name if they want ,


Bill Deguara
Australia
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Posts 215
Dogs 2 / Races 0

02 Jul 2018 12:56


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Every week at nearly every track they are now programming Masters and Pathway races,

While this is a good thing for the older dogs welfare and longevity of life for the not so well performed dogs is is very discriminating against young 5th grade dogs who with only 1 or 2 wins are still racing against dogs with up to 20 wins.

They keep telling us about welfare ,well what about the welfare of these young inexperienced dogs being thrown to the wolves with very little chance of progressing through their grades.


Bruce Teague
Australia
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Posts 2092
Dogs 0 / Races 0

02 Jul 2018 22:41


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Nathan,

I am flabbergasted by the figures shown in that commentary on the McHugh report (your External Link). I have written on many other aspects of their crook numbers but I missed this particular one.

This goes way beyond an odd error. It is gross incompetence at the very least, backed by using selective quotes from unsubstantiated sources. It verges on criminal behaviour and should have been used by the Alliance to thump Baird & co.

One lesson is clear - never use lawyers to conduct reviews of a commercial industry. The Queensland effort was just as facile and all three states relied on a faulty reading of the sloppy memo from GA to come up with the overbreeding myth.

It was also a barrister's report which led to the combination of harness and grey stewards into the short-lived GHRRA - which cost a bomb while it lasted.

PS: I checked the litter figures I quoted and they are correct. Maybe a small sample like that can be misleading? Or maybe top sires produce top numbers? Dunno.


Nathan Absalom
United Kingdom
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Posts 128
Dogs 0 / Races 0

03 Jul 2018 02:11


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Bruce,

Yeah, that one the Commission simply made up.

Speaking from my professional side, I would not be surprised if there has been a real change in the average numbers of pups born per litter. The reason for that is the age of the mother has a very strong influence on the number of progeny born in pretty much any mammal that has multiple births. When the restrictions came in on breeding, it may have changed the ages of brood bitches to a younger cohort, increasing the number of pups/litter. Would have thought the sample size was large enough.



Roger Spry
United Kingdom
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Posts 69
Dogs 0 / Races 0

03 Jul 2018 14:09


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Bruce Teague wrote:

Roger,

To complete my earlier remarks, I checked out a few weeks of breeding reports from greyhoundweekly.com.au run by Roger Clark.

These may tend to be representative of better sires etc but that should not invalidate the overall figures.

Over 84 litters the average number of pups was 7.5. They varied from 1 to 12.


hi Bruce.
i put in the wrong stats,should have been 6.5 pups per litter not 5.6 .we can all make the odd mistake.
this makes the number that make it to the track even worse,
why in australia do so many not make it.
also , how come so many can only run up to 400 mts



Terry Jordan
Australia
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Posts 6013
Dogs 0 / Races 0

03 Jul 2018 23:43


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roger spry wrote:

Bruce Teague wrote:

Roger,

To complete my earlier remarks, I checked out a few weeks of breeding reports from greyhoundweekly.com.au run by Roger Clark.

These may tend to be representative of better sires etc but that should not invalidate the overall figures.

Over 84 litters the average number of pups was 7.5. They varied from 1 to 12.


hi Bruce.
i put in the wrong stats,should have been 6.5 pups per litter not 5.6 .we can all make the odd mistake.
this makes the number that make it to the track even worse,
why in australia do so many not make it.
also , how come so many can only run up to 400 mts


Roger: In our State of NSW, they attempted to improve the Dogs strength several years ago. Very Scientific method used, no consultation needed! Read carefully, They CUT PRIZEMONEY for races under 421m and ADDED PRIZEMONEY to races 421 and above. Simplicity!

I fail to understand why we don't have 3 Sets of Animal Welfare Standards in this State. Metro/Provincial/Country. They race their Country dogs about every 2-3 weeks for $270. And required to keep their dogs up to "Worlds Best Practices" and Standards!


Bruce Teague
Australia
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Posts 2092
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04 Jul 2018 04:04


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Ah, Roger, you ask hard questions. Doubly so as I am OK with figures but not with training and breeding.

Your last question has been knocked around here many times:"also , how come so many can only run up to 400 mts".

I will jump in the deep end and offer two reasons: Brett Lee and Head Honcho.

As against that, the brilliant racer and sire, Fernando Bale, could not run past 520m to save his life yet seems to be able to produce the odd good stayer. See mum?? Dunno.



Brett Margerison
Australia
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Dogs 16 / Races 0

04 Jul 2018 04:11


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Bruce Teague wrote:

Ah, Roger, you ask hard questions. Doubly so as I am OK with figures but not with training and breeding.

Your last question has been knocked around here many times:"also , how come so many can only run up to 400 mts".

I will jump in the deep end and offer two reasons: Brett Lee and Head Honcho.

As against that, the brilliant racer and sire, Fernando Bale, could not run past 520m to save his life yet seems to be able to produce the odd good stayer. See mum?? Dunno.

When was FB tested???... Some of his Brothers n sisters did and he ran 29 flat at Sandown... Pretty sure he'd get 600...



Sandro Bechini
Australia
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Posts 19488
Dogs 15268 / Races 1856

04 Jul 2018 06:08


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Brett Margerison wrote:

Bruce Teague wrote:

Ah, Roger, you ask hard questions. Doubly so as I am OK with figures but not with training and breeding.

Your last question has been knocked around here many times:"also , how come so many can only run up to 400 mts".

I will jump in the deep end and offer two reasons: Brett Lee and Head Honcho.

As against that, the brilliant racer and sire, Fernando Bale, could not run past 520m to save his life yet seems to be able to produce the odd good stayer. See mum?? Dunno.

When was FB tested???... Some of his Brothers n sisters did and he ran 29 flat at Sandown... Pretty sure he'd get 600...

Exactly, he was never tested. He was never trained for it, there was never a need to for him.

A few of his siblings won city races over 600m and 700m

He is getting city class middle distance and staying dogs, and not just out of the Tears Siam litter, either.




Glenn Hatton
Australia
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Posts 4852
Dogs 92 / Races 98

04 Jul 2018 07:06


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Bruce

You better check Fernandos run home times. They were strong so to say he wouldnt get past 500 is not right at all

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