IF you drew a graph...there IS only one conclusion...

We are chatting to each other about the same old stuff.

Meanwhile, the people who control the industry are flat out looking 12 months ahead, and they go that far only because they have to prepare an annual report telling everyone what good fellas they are. 5 year Strategic Plans are neither plans nor strategic if they were we would be talking about different subjects.

The industry is facing many problems but the core issues are that we have run out of dogs and their quality (stamina) is declining. Both those are straight forward matters of fact. They fundamentally affect day to day racing and therefore the people who bet on them and sustain industry income. They have also been moving that way for 20 years not always dramatically (as in post live baiting) but steadily and progressively.

During all that time there has been only one underlying change to racing an increase in attention to and frequency of veterans races. Victoria led the way; others followed to some degree. However, their impact on the core problem is modest and many of the recent gains are there for a left-handed reason ie to combat a nasty PR image related to euthanasia and (allegedly) welfare in general. Everything else is much as it was 20 or 50 years ago.

Why is this so?

Because eight state and territory authorities, plus Greyhounds Australasia, plus 70-odd clubs, are either unaware of the trends or have ignored them. Participants representatives (some exceptions for QGOTBA) are of little help not in the big scheme of things as they tend to be caught up in the official push.

As a result, financial survival has been based on kinder tax treatment by governments or adding more races, not on any natural increase in popularity. Sadly, NSW can no longer claim either of those benefits, so it is in real trouble. In any event, pretty well all the rabbits have already been pulled out of the hat.

The solutions are

1. Get the governments the hell out of racing save only for some oversight of betting. Normal state laws can handle the rest.
2. Corporatise state authorities (much as in SA) and demand transparency and accountability for what they do.
3. Get rid of the useless GA organisation and install an Australia-wide authority to properly direct the management and development of the industry.

Having done that, we might then find out why dog numbers are down and a weakening breed is emerging. Note: So far, not a soul has bothered to look for answers to those puzzles, much less find them.

PS: GA has solved the problem of out-of-date Australian statistics. It now publishes none at all.

Some interesting ideas there which might be valid in any circumstances. But, today, you would essentially be robbing Peter to pay Paul.

It's not Qld or the Northern Rivers but the country which has run out of dogs. Everyone is affected, including the mighty Melbourne tracks.

Always look to WA - it's the canary in the coal mine. Their strength is dependent on a continuing flow of dogs from the East. Quite a few Queenslanders have ended up there. Once that slows down - and it has - WA is stuffed.

You had similar signs a few years back when Albion started running Maidens or Novices on Thursday nights. That never used to happen.

Other major tracks then kept dreaming up Country to City events - always problematical because the distances are quite different.

Sandown and Meadows have a permanent sign up for their "Provincials" - holding noms open, please apply - but they still end up with short fields and less than the usual 12 races.

SA rarely fills long races and what they do get is poor quality.

Meantime, GRNSW (or maybe the politicians) is spending hard cash to find out if a new track at Queanbeyan is a good idea. Unbelievable!

Having said that, if SEQ gets a new track at Logan or wherever, where are the dogs going to come from? You could eliminate some meetings at Albion or Ipswich but it is still a frying pan and fire deal.

So breed more dogs or cut back races. They are the only two options in the short and medium term.

On another note, why they ripped up all the grass on the track & replaced it during WINTER, is beyond me...& then to ignore the calls for it to be TOP-DRESSED at the same time was disappointing, to say the least.

The sport really needs a shot in the arm urgently...but is that what the authorities really want? Doesn't look like it to me.

The million-race is just a curve-ball on what we already know & what is about to happen. And that is Track closures...& more disgruntled participants bailing out.

Steven,

There are quite a few overlaps amongst the points you mention. However, the challenge is to work out how change might affect the operation of an industry where (a) genuine management does not exist and paper processing dominates and (b) the various industry sectors need different treatment to survive and prosper.

The answer to the first point is that survival is not good enough. Unless you advance, you will die. Newson, for example, recognised a few things but not this one. Queensland has little hope as it lacks a leader of any sort.

The second point is a matter of addressing the three main branches of the industrys training/owning/breeding area - that is

1. Hobbyists who like only to cover outgoings and who more often patronise non-TAB tracks.
2. The family with quite a few dogs and who rely on cash prizes to sustain weekly income and provide something for the future.
3. Successful trainers with large kennels, the best gear, and who attract the best dogs and therefore most of the big prizes.

Hovering are a number of owners, most of whom will not get their money back but are in it for the fun.

While I dont mind seeing the odd case of track rationalisation, it has to be attacked with great caution. For example, we have lost both Albury and Wangaratta, thereby leaving a large gap between Shepparton and Wagga and disenfranchising a very large population. The community therefore becomes disinterested, visits the local TAB less often and reduces state income.

The radical case, represented by Newson & co, favours a wholesale reduction in tracks and expenses to try to make income equal outgoings. Unfortunately, small is not always beautiful. Once you cut back, the mob see a weakness and starting buying somewhere else. Interest dies, familiarity declines and betting slows.

You will then lose a lot of Group 1 participants the hobbyists while many in Group 2 will find their margins disappearing, petrol costs rising, and will start looking for another job. Group 3 dont care so much as they may still find opportunities for big prizes in other states.

All of which tends to point in the direction of USA factory racing, which can hardly be rated a success and further removes the potential for involving the broader community.

The missing element is any effort to improve income - ie more betting - which in turn demands marketing competence from administrators. Sadly, that's not their best thing. They do not do "shots in the arm". Queensland's dismal "Werunasone" program was a classic failure. I am not sure they even understand the question. Even so, expertise can be bought in, providing leaders grasp the nettle.

Whatever, closing tracks willy nilly is never going to be a successful approach except in very special circumstances. Better to hang on to them and find others ways of skinning the cat.

Remember when they advertised that they would MAXIMISE your chances of winning prizemoney? (Old GRNSW board, that's right they sacked them)

There was never an OVERBREEDING problem!!! The instigator was the CEO of GA who still retains his job. Sounds fair, Totally stuff up an industry Australia wide and keep your job. But I guess GA is a useless govt instrumentality that needs to exist. Chief Stewards have been demoted for much less!

The GRV CEO hung his hat on it early and Victoria is feeling it now. We would have bred a couple of litters in this time frame but we are done with breeding. The work, dedication and commitment required to do the job properly is not worth the reward anymore. How many have dropped out of racing completely? we will never know.

Enter Sandown and create a breeding farm. If they think the American style setup will work good but what it will replace is the hobby trainer/breeder that is the backbone of our industry and what has made it the most successful package anywhere in the world and I have been to all kinds of racing around the world, we have the best product!

Remembrance day was only a few days ago, imagine not acknowledging the diggers who gave us the lives we live today with their sacrifice and hardship, it would be un Australian. Well, not acknowledging the foundation of our sport/industry is no different and sadly what culture we have is being pissed down the toilet for dollars and cents and the political crap of community acceptance and social license.

And guess what its not community acceptance we need, that's what the polies want so they will be re-elected, it is the punting public who have never wavered from having a bet, they are the ones who have supported us. Since live baiting not once did betting turn over go down, it may be going down now because of a lack of races and small fields because the OVERBREEDING MYTH was perpetuated by non descript public servants doing their political masters bidding.

So Victorian racing public/betters you have an election in 7 days, make it count for something!

Your response to Steven was pretty right in respect to the current shortage of starters. But I have to add a couple of points.

First, the instigator (if you can call it that) was a series of newspaper reports of bulk euthanasia/shootings. The newspaper coverage then gave rise to pollies taking violent action so that they looked good in the public eye. GA then - and only then - reacted to that with the badly constructed confidential memo containing what were really suicides notes for the industry. In turn, Newson passed on the crook figures to McHugh without bothering to check them first. Neither did Baird and Grant. Baird and others then lowered the boom. Live baiting was in the background and seriously affected litters but was not the primary influence in publicity or policy terms.

Secondly, the punting/gambling public have reacted over a period of years to a number of factors, including the ease of using your thumb on a phone, touchscreen betting options, the high frequency of greyhound races, lower average field quality, and a beer after work. This pattern involved gamblers replacing oldtime punters so that it gave the appearance of turnover holding up. All that blasted through the live baiting ruckus, as you say, thereby indicating that those same mugs in pubs did not look past their phone screen, so to speak.

The indirect proof of this is the decade-long diversion of business to corporates with come-on incentives, the degradation of once more reliable tote prices, the rise in Mystery betting (now extended to F4), more use of boxed Trifectas (including by tipsters), overbetting on favourites, the absence of knowledge of greyhound racing (ie they don't go to the track) and the pattern of investing on unpredictable Maidens and low grade races to the same extent as good class races.

On the other hand, the only evidence of serious punting is the odd occasion when we hear about a punter getting set with one of the F/O operators where it elects to act as a genuine bookie might and take a big bet. Some of those popped up at Sandown recently but I suspect they are not too frequent.

I wish you luck with a change of government in Vic but I would not put money on it. In any case, any newcomer would have to battle through the maze of rules manufactured by government departments and GRV, while also making sure he had public support.

The solutions are to radically change how both GA and state authorities operate - preferably by bringing them into the 21st century.

No doubt breeding will gradually recover but the key is whether it will reach previous levels. My guess is not for a long while. It depends on the confidence shown by trainer/breeders and whether they are prepared to look outside the square.

More dogs or less meetings ?

Today

Vic...4 meetings
NSW...3 meetings including Goulburn , only an 8 race card, which was abandoned ???

1 meeting in Tas, WA, SA, and Queensland.

Is the GRV going to the well too often?

Perhaps punters may prefer quality, rather than quantity, in the way of meetings?

10 race card.

5 over the sh1tty 297m.

Very Shi!!y but I guess its the only way they will field a meeting whilst there are less dogs available

I would be interested to know if betting turnover has dropped or not with the proliferation of 300m races

One thing is for sure, it's going to get even worse over the next 12 months as litters that were whelped 18 - 24 months ago were at an all-time low, & some of those litters are coming thru now (if they make it to the track) as we speak.

Won't be long before 298m are re-introduced at Wpk on a Wednesday.

Sandro,

My guess about betting turnover on the shorts is that it is a little less or about the same, or something like that. At Dapto the 297s had the second best and the worst (the last race) but you can't rely on TAB figures these days and turnover at the corporates and Betfair is either hard or impossible to get hold of.

Race to race turnover, in any event, is highly dependent on the time of day or night, the day of the week, the proximity to trot races and the wonders of TAB programming (TAB/SKY sets all the start times).

Equally, aside from the really big feature events, turnover pays no heed to the quality or experience of the runners - maidens and high grades have much the same turnover.

I did advise elsewhere that the proportion of races of 400m or less had increased from 54% to 64% over the last few years. Where that trend will stop is hard to fathom, but it partly answers your question.

Otherwise, I observe that many gamblers don't really check the race distance before they invest, but they are often disappointed that the race finishes so quickly. They certainly can't check the form because that varies from pathetic to nil, and very few gamblers would be able to read it anyway. Those that can read are unlikely to be able to interpret it.

Some of that hardly matters if more of the runners are being taken from the bottom half of the litter and therefore offer poor or unreliable form history.

For all these reasons, the shortage is already at a chronic level but may not get too much worse in numerical terms. But it will in quality terms. And gamblers will further dominate punters.

So your best bets are to buy shares in TABCORP and hope that SFF gets the balance of power in Victoria. (TABCORP is far and away the most beneficial to racing - we get a bigger slice of the action and it is legislated).

PS: The Dapto 297m could readily be extended to 350m or more, providing that you sensibly re-built the track and re-routed the road to the kennels. A bonus would be a decent start for 520m races. Both would play a small part in raising betting levels and encouraging more breeding. Every little bit helps.

I already know all that. You've really missed the point of what I was trying to say by going off on your own tangent.

The point I am making is that aren't enough dogs to go around because of the breeding shortage and all clubs are being forced now to put on:

1. Shorter races with very ordinary greyhounds with poor form

2. 500m+ races with smaller fields and usually no reserves. These are easy to bet on and the winner is usually obvious but it's also usually $1.40

3. A lot of tracks, not so much in Victoria, but in other States definitely are now not fielding 10 race programs and have a number of races described in points 1 & 2

Breeding may have picked up but it still won't be enough, in NSW at least, to support the number of tracks unless it picks up more

The breed for early speed attitude and the fact that modern trainers aren't willing to spend time developing 500m+ dogs these days will only ensure that every litter born will have a high % of short coursers in them with maybe 1 to 2 being able to run a good 500m+

Therefore, for the foreseeable future, we will be seeing more 250m -400m races being held on the tracks we aren't accustomed to seeing them

PS I don't think they can extend Dapto to 350m as there doesn't seem to be enough room, and they would need to change the cambers and the width of the track as well. Just no room for the changes that should be made the way I see it.

However, I am no engineer and if Dapto is in their long range plans, GRNSW could spend some money there with UTS and they may come up with a solution like WP and Gosford.

Personally I would rather see Bulli fully recambered and maintained and Nowra be redeveloped as on that track there is plenty room to reshape if necessary

We have already started having 280m races on a Wednesday when there aren't enough 500m+ dogs to fill 10 races

I really think that a decision should be made to go to 6 dogs fields permanently except for feature races

Personally, I'd just let it 'ride' for another 18-24 months & see if things pick-up in regards of field-size, as breeding is on the rise (when compared to the last 3 years only) & most dogs now are needed for the sport to survive across Australia.

For example the introduction of "Mature Grades" is an area I believe is the best thing to come out of the so-called 'Live Baiting' years. These mature dogs needed this to happen as they were being outclassed causing early retirement. Now they have a future (bar injury) but it could be extended I believe further if a "Track" (somewhere central maybe) could be designated strictly for the "Mature Dogs" ONLY. A grading system, therefore, could be created due to the gathering of all or most of these dogs in one area.

Just my views.

They really should have their own meetings but at the moment there isnt enough of most age of dogs