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Welcome to the Greyhound Knowledge Forum

   

The Greyhound-Data Forum has been created to act as a platform for greyhound enthusiasts to share information on this magnificent animal called a greyhound.

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If you need help or advice about a dog you are retiring then this is the place for you.

Speed can killpage  1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 

Sandro Bechini
Australia
(Verified User)
Posts 17976
Dogs 14343 / Races 1817

07 Dec 2019 06:49


 (4)
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Bruce Teague wrote:

Sandro,

I must say I am amazed at your detailed knowledge of my history, experience, abilities and punting success. You guys must have psychic capabilities.

In any event, your comments would improve no end if you actually read what I posted.

“… both the winner and TT were on 7 day back ups“. That is precisely what I said.

“ … they wouldn't have backed Blazing Carter either“. Again, my specific point was that it has become impossible to back anything in these races due to the uncertainties. That’s not good for the industry.

Nor is it my job to “… help the punters“. But I do try to make points or ask questions which might lead to a better industry in the future.

You guys have chosen not to make responses to the main theme here (uncertain distance racing and leading then to the questionable stamina of the breed), preferring instead to throw rocks at me personally. How does that help the industry? Why do you bother?

But keep going and tell the fans why it is stupid to take odds-on about a favourite with poor/erratic form. Or advise them never to back a dog having its first distance start (they win less than one in five despite possible good 600m form). Or insist on better odds for one-turn dogs moving up to circle tracks. And always be wary about dogs that have just had two or three poor runs in succession. And never back anything in a low quality distance race – you might as well chuck an arrow at the dartboard.

All backed up by serious long term research and analysis.

Incidentally, the idea with a formguide is to actually study them carefully, not to just glance at who is training what and stick it in your back pocket. And never listen to tips, especially not on SKY.

Do you proclaim yourself as the saviour of the industry?

Greyhounds competing in races have been inconsistent since racing began, or at least since I have been involved which is in the decades now

There would be virtually less than 1% of greyhounds that race consistently over every start.

The things that you think is the destruction of the breed are just the normal challenges that trainers face to have their dogs ready to race.

There is just more attention given to backing up dogs faster to race over shorter and not developing them over longer distances

Overall the theory behind the sport hasn't changed, just its focus

You aren't coping with it and now you are making up all these issues and they have been there all along

e.g there have been low quality staying races going back 40 years and the results have always been variable, whats changed for the punter tere?

One turn dogs not handling 2 turn tracks - Whats changed for the punter there?

Nothing!!

Stop making out you know all the answers to all these supposedly 'NEW" questions about the sport and go back to applying whatever systems you had in place to back winners, then make some money and stop whinging

Wow, stayers that don't chase hard!!

Well, your serious long time research and analysis should have told you it was going on before Bunyip Bint was a sparkle in her mum's eye.

Problem is, you still haven't found the answer



Michael Geraghty
Australia
(Verified User)
Posts 3990
Dogs 14 / Races 15

07 Dec 2019 07:38


 (3)
 (0)


Sandro Bechini wrote:

Bruce Teague wrote:

Sandro,

I must say I am amazed at your detailed knowledge of my history, experience, abilities and punting success. You guys must have psychic capabilities.

In any event, your comments would improve no end if you actually read what I posted.

“… both the winner and TT were on 7 day back ups“. That is precisely what I said.

“ … they wouldn't have backed Blazing Carter either“. Again, my specific point was that it has become impossible to back anything in these races due to the uncertainties. That’s not good for the industry.

Nor is it my job to “… help the punters“. But I do try to make points or ask questions which might lead to a better industry in the future.

You guys have chosen not to make responses to the main theme here (uncertain distance racing and leading then to the questionable stamina of the breed), preferring instead to throw rocks at me personally. How does that help the industry? Why do you bother?

But keep going and tell the fans why it is stupid to take odds-on about a favourite with poor/erratic form. Or advise them never to back a dog having its first distance start (they win less than one in five despite possible good 600m form). Or insist on better odds for one-turn dogs moving up to circle tracks. And always be wary about dogs that have just had two or three poor runs in succession. And never back anything in a low quality distance race – you might as well chuck an arrow at the dartboard.

All backed up by serious long term research and analysis.

Incidentally, the idea with a formguide is to actually study them carefully, not to just glance at who is training what and stick it in your back pocket. And never listen to tips, especially not on SKY.

Do you proclaim yourself as the saviour of the industry?

Greyhounds competing in races have been inconsistent since racing began, or at least since I have been involved which is in the decades now

There would be virtually less than 1% of greyhounds that race consistently over every start.

The things that you think is the destruction of the breed are just the normal challenges that trainers face to have their dogs ready to race.

There is just more attention given to backing up dogs faster to race over shorter and not developing them over longer distances

Overall the theory behind the sport hasn't changed, just its focus

You aren't coping with it and now you are making up all these issues and they have been there all along

e.g there have been low quality staying races going back 40 years and the results have always been variable, whats changed for the punter tere?

One turn dogs not handling 2 turn tracks - Whats changed for the punter there?

Nothing!!

Stop making out you know all the answers to all these supposedly 'NEW" questions about the sport and go back to applying whatever systems you had in place to back winners, then make some money and stop whinging

Wow, stayers that don't chase hard!!

Well, your serious long time research and analysis should have told you it was going on before Bunyip Bint was a sparkle in her mum's eye.

Problem is, you still haven't found the answer

Probably one of the most commonsense posts I've read on here in a long, long time.
It hasn't been wasted on people with commonsense, Sandro.




Simon Moore
Australia
(Verified User)
Posts 2273
Dogs 32 / Races 393

07 Dec 2019 09:56


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 (0)


so again he is having a sook that blazin carters odds were way overs but instead of plunging and making a motza he just wants to complain.

is it just me or is he making himself look more ridiculous each day?

he's just a professional whinger imo, lol.


Mark Donohue
Australia
(Verified User)
Posts 2685
Dogs 6 / Races 0

07 Dec 2019 20:09


 (4)
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When an argument is flawed and one cannot see it for whatever reason that it is flawed, he or she is expected to lose his money as it is not full-proof. Gambling, punting using mathematical equations or collation of numbers, still only gives you probability with some degree of accuracy as one cannot control any or some of the the ‘variables’. Therefore, an opinion is formed (hypothesis = educated guess) from interpreting the figures.

When mixing fact and opinion in argument, it doesn’t make the opinion become fact even if it’s repeated a hundred times. That’s why people disagree and challenge it because they don’t want the opinion to become fact.




Bruce Teague
Australia
(Verified User)
Posts 1723
Dogs 0 / Races 0

07 Dec 2019 23:54


 (1)
 (0)


Ah Sandro, I detect we are starting to hear some big and productive thoughts at last. I will digest these as we go along but please lose the “you are not coping” rubbish – it does not help. I am coping very well, thanks, but not via betting on dogs.

I will recapitulate: I stopped betting for three main reasons – (1) Poor Tracks, (2) Declining Average Field Quality, and (3) Hopelessly Small Pools and Rip-off Prices. In each of these cases, the degree of difficulty is increased so that the normal 14%-25% betting deductions are effectively raised by 10%, 20% or whatever (and even more on FO). That makes sensible betting physically impossible.

The key point is that this is not a static situation. There are trends which are blindingly obvious – the easiest one to recognise is the steady disappearance of the serious punter and his replacement by mugs in pubs. Why is this happening?

Am I a saviour? Well, I would not use those words but my aim is to help make the industry more efficient and effective. Sadly, by any measure, it is going in the reverse direction today. Hence, in part, my decade-long campaign to better understand what is going on with distance racing and the breed’s stamina. Right, wrong or indifferent, we need to know more lest a trend wipe out the industry as we know it.

You mentioned Bunyip Bint (1966, Stan Cleverley) who was as inconsistent a stayer as they get yet still managed to knock off Zoom Top a couple of times. So dubious chasers are nothing new. However, I believe your 1% figure is too modest. By and large, a degree of consistency is the beginning and end of good punting and many dogs supply that asset. It’s not precision science, of course, but habit is a powerful influence, helped by the expertise of the trainer. You would hope for a field that is all trying to repeat their previous runs and to do it in much the same way as before. But, as I said earlier, it’s a matter of how regularly they can do that. Some make their own luck, others cannot. Form analysis will help with that. (See Blazing Cartier v TT).

To some extent, all this matters less to the trainer who will be seeking dogs which can (a) make it to the city and (b) win 20%, 30% or 40% of their races, by which time the trainer will be tickled pink with his bank account. Losses can be swept aside so long as the cash is flowing in. On the other hand, the punter needs more than that – not only winners but also prices which give him value. It’s the latter which is hard to come by now. It’s no good picking winners if you are not getting paid enough.

It’s all in the odds – the betting odds, the odds about the dog producing his best, and the odds about being allowed to produce it, or something close to it. Three different things. For example, despite the Thompson predictions, Hooked on Scotch – always the “best” dog in the race - was able to display only one of those three qualities and so missed out in the Melbourne Cup. In contrast, TT did not, and could not, produce its best in the Bold Trease or its run-up races – not even close. But it still won???

In that Geelong 680m race, I am challenged for not taking the good odds about Blazing Cartier. But, aside from the fact that I no longer bet on dogs, how could I tell if the dog would jump poorly (as in the Bold Trease) or well (as it did at Geelong)? Since you can’t put money on after the jump you have to work on the dog’s history, which included erratic first sectionals. The only serious assumptions you could make at Geelong was that TT would not run hot time and that its $1.70 price was ridiculous. All too hard, as are most distance races.

That’s why, if I bought a dog, I would first look for a good trainer. But if I broke a leg, I would first look for a top surgeon, not a plumber.




Mark Donohue
Australia
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Posts 2685
Dogs 6 / Races 0

08 Dec 2019 07:01


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I forgot to mention that Confucius used to train dogs in China. He once said that trainers of dogs will always know more about dogs than a thousand writers will ever know.




Simon Moore
Australia
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Posts 2273
Dogs 32 / Races 393

08 Dec 2019 07:34


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Bruce Teague wrote:

I will digest these as we go along


PMSL!

What he is trying to say is now that I’ve sucked you in I will waffle on and on and tell you how I know everything about nothing, lol.


Bruce Teague
Australia
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Posts 1723
Dogs 0 / Races 0

09 Dec 2019 23:47


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A funny thing happened last weekend. Prolific WA winner, Reidy’s Runner, with $241k in the bank, lost a 715m race at Cannington when favourite at $1.40. In fact, he showed no drive and raced like a tired old man.

It warrants a look at his recent career.

He returned from a spell in August and won nicely in 41.80, not far off his best. The track record is 41.25, set by Tornado Tears back in March 2019 (but note that TT could do no better than 42.13 in the series final a week later) .

Since then, Reidy’s Runner has had 11 starts including 8 over the 715m trip. Of those 8, he won 5 and lost 3. In 6 of those 8 races, he started at odds-on. This is how the lead-ups to those races went:

Prior to the Wins

4 weeks gap, ran 41.80
2 weeks gap, ran 41.76
2 weeks gap, ran 41.92
Shorter trips, then ran 42.10
2 weeks gap, ran 41.97

(Average 41.91)

Prior to the Losses

3 weeks gap, ran 42.13
1 week gap, ran 42.80
1 week gap, ran 43.21 (see para 1 above)

(Average 42.71)

Reidy’s Runner had comparable up and down experiences earlier in the year.

Nothing is certain in life but there is an overwhelming advantage when Reidy’s Runner has at least a 2 week gap between races. Many others have the same experience. Even Tornado Tears, which ran 10 lengths slower in the Cannington final after setting a new track record one week earlier.



Michael Geraghty
Australia
(Verified User)
Posts 3990
Dogs 14 / Races 15

10 Dec 2019 00:51


 (2)
 (0)


Just ignore him.



Kevin Wright
Australia
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Posts 5290
Dogs 1 / Races 1

10 Dec 2019 03:15


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Bruce one last time ..

A stayer is unique and everyone of them is different .
There are no set rules when racing stayers but you do need to either trial or race when you are short of a run.
Some Stayers pull up great after 5 days others can and do take longer than 7 days to recoup .

Most stayers of today are Sprinter come stayers where as years ago you bred a stayer and you tried to place it correctly knowing that in time it will be a slow early stayer that rattles home but today these types are very rare today

True staying bloodlines can recover very quickly but when breeding speed we do sacrifice other traits ....

The hardest part is trying to place a Young future stayer trying to protect them as much as possible can be a the hardest part and trying to get people to trial younger dogs over 500 or 600 is impossible to find ....

Simple Fix pay all starters over 500 extra $$$ you will soon get people racing and training over al distances ..




Bruce Teague
Australia
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Posts 1723
Dogs 0 / Races 0

10 Dec 2019 04:18


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Kevin,

That all makes a lot of sense. In particular, I buy your last sentence.

Still, the point is it needs a combination of efforts from authorities on the one hand and trainers on the other. Authorities rarely move unless there is a big push from outside.

My big wish is that the industry should recognise that staying is a good thing and make it a prime objective. (1) It is good for the breed overall. (2) The punters love them and the gamblers (at the other end) like getting a good run for their money. (3) It is sound economics - ie like Veterans, it broadens out the rewards potential.

Whatever, my constant stream of examples tells us that too few can handle the 7-day backups. The evidence is overwhelming no matter what the class of dog.

At the stroke of a pen, the industry can start paying nothing much for 300m and a lot for 700m. Then sit back and watch what happens over 5 years.



Kevin Wright
Australia
(Verified User)
Posts 5290
Dogs 1 / Races 1

10 Dec 2019 07:52


 (2)
 (0)


Bruce Teague wrote:

Kevin,

That all makes a lot of sense. In particular, I buy your last sentence.

Still, the point is it needs a combination of efforts from authorities on the one hand and trainers on the other. Authorities rarely move unless there is a big push from outside.

My big wish is that the industry should recognise that staying is a good thing and make it a prime objective. (1) It is good for the breed overall. (2) The punters love them and the gamblers (at the other end) like getting a good run for their money. (3) It is sound economics - ie like Veterans, it broadens out the rewards potential.

Whatever, my constant stream of examples tells us that too few can handle the 7-day backups. The evidence is overwhelming no matter what the class of dog.

At the stroke of a pen, the industry can start paying nothing much for 300m and a lot for 700m. Then sit back and watch what happens over 5 years.


Bruce ..
That all makes a lot of sense. In particular, I buy your last sentence.
The Mentality of the Aussie Breeder is to breed speed with speed and hope for the best ....
Years ago strong lines would throw all style of dogs within one litter ..Speed and strength.
Victoria Built Speed tracks so it gave you no incentive to breed any other way
The old timers who used to have strong staying lines have almost whittled away to half a dozen bloodlines today in Australia .

Give big breeder incentives and you will get great results...

Pay the 300 meter squibs half the stake money ..
Pay dogs racing over 500 to 700 bigger starters fees
PS
Bruce
Can i ask you a question .
Do you agree to your own posts from time to time ..



Bruce Teague
Australia
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Posts 1723
Dogs 0 / Races 0

10 Dec 2019 21:02


 (1)
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Kevin,

First of all, I keep agreeing with you (recently, that is).

Second, this thread started off with me posing four questions to all and sundry. I repeat them ......

"All of which leaves us with some serious questions.

1. Is this trend a good or bad thing or just part of a cycle?
2. Exactly why is it happening?
3. What will reverse the trend?
4. Why are the majority of “stayers” incapable of repeating good runs after a 7 days break?"

Unfortunately, we got very few real answers.

And, no, I don't bother hitting the Agree button. I don't think it is a very good system anyway. Much better to have people provide sensible comments with their name on them.



Simon Moore
Australia
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Posts 2273
Dogs 32 / Races 393

10 Dec 2019 21:41


 (1)
 (0)


Michael Geraghty wrote:

Just ignore him.


Most people have learnt that.




Kevin Wright
Australia
(Verified User)
Posts 5290
Dogs 1 / Races 1

10 Dec 2019 22:40


 (1)
 (0)


Bruce
"All of which leaves us with some serious questions.

1. Is this trend a good or bad thing or just part of a cycle?
2. Exactly why is it happening?
3. What will reverse the trend?
4. Why are the majority of “stayers” incapable of repeating good runs after a 7 days break?"

No 1 ....Its a bad thing and yes it's part of the cycle we are now in .

No2...This is happening because people breed speed with speed this weakens the gene pool.

No3..We can reverse the trend if the PTB start to act now and reward breeders and trainers for racing Greyhounds over 500 meters to 700 meters ..

No4..
Stayers bruce are a special breed of Greyhound ...There is many factors to take in to account when training and racing a Stayer maybe the craft of keeping dogs up over 500 to 700 is a lost art and you will see almost 100% of new participants racing over 300 meters and they are encouraged to do so ..

Most old time trainers will tell you that some stayers need longer than a 7 day break it depends on the time of the year and it also depends on the class of dogs you have been racing ...

Flat Flyer was in this class but it didnt stop him winning Greyhound of the year
along with past sandown track record holder in Romper stomper these dogs needed a bigger break at times and its one thing free galloping a dog compared to putting that same dog behind a lure and most stayers bust a gut so they do need a short let up ...
Australia has a very long hot dry summers this also plays a huge part in a stayers career Bruce ...Track conditions also play a huge part in a stayer and as you know those stayers who sit have way up a track tend to get a sling shot effect but that line they take is the hardest part of the track and anyone given time
Maybe its the mind set of most trainers these days to back a dog up over 2 times a week .....Take away the incentives for dogs racing over 300 ...Pay them half of the present stake money on offer and you will get a turn around in the mind set of 80% of the trainers today ..

Bruce i hope i have helped you answer those answers you seek ..
Merry Xmas


Bruce Teague
Australia
(Verified User)
Posts 1723
Dogs 0 / Races 0

13 Dec 2019 22:26


 (2)
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Kevin,

Thankyou. Can we put you in charge of prize money allocations?



Kevin Wright
Australia
(Verified User)
Posts 5290
Dogs 1 / Races 1

14 Dec 2019 03:02


 (0)
 (0)


Bruce Teague wrote:

Kevin,

Thankyou. Can we put you in charge of prize money allocations?

Dont tease me Bruce .....

Support the grass roots of our sport ...Support the Breeders in Each State

I would pay each starter over 500 to 700 a starters fee of $500 .
Pay the breeder a $50 starters fee for each dog or bitch they have bred who racers over 500 to 700 ...For its entire racing career ..

Cut the 300 meter squibs stake money in half as we are seeing a lot of these squibs racing 8 to 12 times a month so that alone gives that trainer 250 a week pocket money ...its crazy IMO

Reward the breeder with a lot more breeder based incentives maybe bring back GOBIS rehashed into something that can never be taken away from the breeder again ...Every breeder needs incentives to breed

Bruce


Gillian Wilcox
Australia
(Verified User)
Posts 71
Dogs 1 / Races 0

14 Dec 2019 04:03


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Kevin I would not cut any money off for any distance but what I think should happen is give more for 500/700 m and pay a $50 breeders bonus per a win on tab/city track . starters fees at the present is ok there should be a limit on starts per month to 6 per dog .



Kevin Wright
Australia
(Verified User)
Posts 5290
Dogs 1 / Races 1

14 Dec 2019 04:50


 (0)
 (0)


gillian wilcox wrote:

Kevin I would not cut any money off for any distance but what I think should happen is give more for 500/700 m and pay a $50 breeders bonus per a win on tab/city track . starters fees at the present is ok there should be a limit on starts per month to 6 per dog .


Gillian
It is great we dont agree it would be a crappy World if we all followed the flock but we do agree something needs to be done to address this right now ..

Why should the industry support 1 ..300 meter breeders
2nd pay the same amount for a product that is all over in 18 seconds its not good enough for trainers now to say its good racing for 1k a month with dogs that half of the time do not even chase properly its stupid paying for a product that is inferior in so many ways IMO ..

If you pay lets say $200 to every starter racing over 500 to 700 and you pay the breeders $50 bucks each time that dog has a race start then you will soon see people reconsider how they breed today ...

This equals what a speedy 300 squib can earn a month racing without even winning or running a place ...
10 to 12 starts for 300 squib on average a month ..possible earnings $1100
4 to 6 starts for a 500 to 700 racer on average a month .possible earnings $500

If the PTB build speed tracks to suit 300 meter dogs then what happens to the Two turn tracks do we pull them all down and sell the land to make STRAIGHT tracks all over Australia .
Maybe this is the only solution maybe we only need straight track racing in the Future but maybe then they can make some tracks upwards of 700 meters for those still interested in keeping strength and chase in our bloodlines
The simple fix right now is to pay for the product reward the breeder and the breeder will again breed back to strength and this will further strengthen our gene pool.

PS
At present Gillian a kennel full of tier 3 non chasing speedy squibs can earn more a month than a 500 to 600 meter racer so basically its not provable to race dogs who run 500 to 700 because you are fighting a grading system that only rewards speedy squibs its impossible to get 600 and 700 meter maiden or 0-4 dogs to make a full field this needs to change and change now because logic tells me i am best racing a bunch of non chasing sqibs and if i have a kennel of 20 possible earnings without winning is incredible when you start to add it all up per month thats upwards of 10k to 20k a month if you break the training up between family .....or trainers training from the same kennel address ...I wonder what would happen if that starters fee was cut in half would we still be getting the same thing happening or would there be once again a change in thinking .

Merry XMas Gillian


Sandro Bechini
Australia
(Verified User)
Posts 17976
Dogs 14343 / Races 1817

14 Dec 2019 07:16


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On a brighter note, at least 2 x 720m races at Wentworth Park tonight - both 5th grades.

Yesterday there was a Group race at The Gardens, the Newcastle Cup

Hopefully the ranks are starting to build up. they don't appear overnight they have to be trained up for these distances over a longer period than sprinters

Now GRNSW needs to keep the sub-structure of middle distance races and staying races going to build up the numbers

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